July 31, 1998

Grower Newsletter

 

July 31, 1998

 

ALMOND MARKET STEADY SINCE ESTIMATE. Trading has been quiet, as it normally is at this time of year. Only a few growers are selling at today’s prices. Most also express a plan to sell before bloom. This will compact selling into a narrow range of two to four months and could cause some price weakness, if crop comes in close to the estimate. The other story is concern about crop coming up short of the estimate. We will not really have a good idea until our delivery reports in early November. Early deliveries will give us some idea, but are not always good indicators. Buyers are also slow to accept current prices. Accordingly, the following grower prices are not necessarily supported yet by end users:

1998 Crop

Shellerrun MeatsField Run

Nonpareil2.00 +/-1.96 +/-

California1.75 +/-1.71 +/-

Shellrun meats from PAPC fob are .02/lb higher.

HARVEST IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE this year. Most early harvest areas do not expect to be delivering nuts to shellers until the week of August 17—about two weeks later than last year. According to measurements made during the crop estimate, kernel sizes will be large, as expected,-- similar to ’93 crop and not quite as large as ’95 or ’96 crop for major varieties. The good news for processors and buyers is that doubles will be way down from last year’s record levels. Shrivel and gum are below average. We have heard many field reports of blank nuts, but this was not observed in the crop estimate data. Please make sure kernels are under 5 or 6% moisture before delivery—this will help reduce mold, internal damage and imbedded shell.
RPAC will be packing Nonpareil and Sonora inshell for India at one or two hullers in the state this year. We expect a premium of about $.03 to .05/lb (kernel weight) for nuts which qualify—low rejects and FM. If you are interested in participating, please let us know. We will need to truck field run to one of the participating hullers.
We expect to post prices on this website on a regular basis. At this time, the newsletters are shown along with brochure information. Watch for changes and give us your ideas for providing better information service to you.
I will be in Spain August 1 to 16 visiting buyers, but will be in daily contact with the office. Our staff will assist you with forward sales, receiving and other matters in my absence.

             - Ned Ryan

January 7, 2005

 

ALMOND MARKET FIRM & STEADY AFTER .10/LB INCREASE IN DEC. With no surprises in crop size and December shipments, we expect prices to remain firm through the month. Much of the crop is committed and many buyers still need more coverage between now and new crop. Until we get past bloom, that particular uncertainty will keep the market firm and nervous. A perfect bloom can soften prices some, but the tight supply/demand relationship will continue to dictate prices. Other tree nuts continue at high prices, thus offering no relief through substitution. Following are current grower prices - call for updates if you wish to sell:

 NonpareilCarmel TypesCalif/Butte/Miss

2004 Crop2.95 + / -2.85 + / -2.80 + / -

2005 Crop2.66 + / -2.48 + / -2.45 + / -

SHIPMENTS FOR DECEMBER DOWN SLIGHTLY AT 89 MIL compared with 94 mil for December 2003. We propose the following supply scenario: 
 

Carry in Aug. 1, 2004 143million lbs

2004 crop 1.0 bil less 4% loss 960 

Total supply1103 

Shipments same as 2003 of 10101010 

Carry out July 2005   97 

   

HARVEST HAS REACHED 970 MIL LBS. We expect the final crop will be close to 1 billion lbs even, leaving us no room to grow shipments from last year-something demand is trying to do, hence the high prices. The crop has failed to make the 1.08 billion estimate. Today we are ahead of year ago shipments by 15 million lbs. This means shipments will need to be less than a year ago for the remaining 7 months in order to have just 97 million carry out vs. 149 in July 2004 and 162 in July 2003. Current commitments are greater than a year ago, further pressuring prices. It is just tight all the way around!
ALMOND BOARD ELECTION PETITIONS ARE DUE JANUARY 20. Please contact the Board or us if you have interest or questions about the Board or Committees.
Ned Ryan