January 7, 2005

 

ALMOND MARKET FIRM & STEADY AFTER .10/LB INCREASE IN DEC. With no surprises in crop size and December shipments, we expect prices to remain firm through the month. Much of the crop is committed and many buyers still need more coverage between now and new crop. Until we get past bloom, that particular uncertainty will keep the market firm and nervous. A perfect bloom can soften prices some, but the tight supply/demand relationship will continue to dictate prices. Other tree nuts continue at high prices, thus offering no relief through substitution. Following are current grower prices - call for updates if you wish to sell:

 NonpareilCarmel TypesCalif/Butte/Miss

2004 Crop2.95 + / -2.85 + / -2.80 + / -

2005 Crop2.66 + / -2.48 + / -2.45 + / -

SHIPMENTS FOR DECEMBER DOWN SLIGHTLY AT 89 MIL compared with 94 mil for December 2003. We propose the following supply scenario: 
 

Carry in Aug. 1, 2004 143million lbs

2004 crop 1.0 bil less 4% loss 960 

Total supply1103 

Shipments same as 2003 of 10101010 

Carry out July 2005   97 

   

HARVEST HAS REACHED 970 MIL LBS. We expect the final crop will be close to 1 billion lbs even, leaving us no room to grow shipments from last year-something demand is trying to do, hence the high prices. The crop has failed to make the 1.08 billion estimate. Today we are ahead of year ago shipments by 15 million lbs. This means shipments will need to be less than a year ago for the remaining 7 months in order to have just 97 million carry out vs. 149 in July 2004 and 162 in July 2003. Current commitments are greater than a year ago, further pressuring prices. It is just tight all the way around!
ALMOND BOARD ELECTION PETITIONS ARE DUE JANUARY 20. Please contact the Board or us if you have interest or questions about the Board or Committees.
Ned Ryan