Today the Almond Board of California released the July 2017 position report
July shipments were 153.9 million lbs. vs. 138.6 million lbs. in 2016 - up 11%
U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +12.6% for July
Exports, +17% YTD, +10.2% for July
Shipments for the crop year finished at 2.1 Billion lbs., up 16% vs. the prior crop year. In the spring of 2016 many were thinking we'd be lucky to reach 10% growth, so this is quite a milestone. The carry-over was reduced to 404 million lbs., down 4% from a year ago. Half of this 404 carry-over was sold by July 31 and supply feels tight.
CURRENCY: The USD is has continued weakening and is at 1.18 to the Euro.
Harvest is a week later than in 2016. The almonds are coming off cleaner and shaking is moving along quickly. We are just starting to receive the first Nonpareils so we do not have feedback on quality or yields.
California Supply Overview:
2017 2016 2015
Carry-In 404,227,959 412,001,125 376,614,224
Crop 2,250,000,000 2,135,730,461 1,894,393,765
2% Loss & Exempt 45,000,000 42,714,609 37,887,875
New Crop Marketable 2,654,227,959** 2,547,731,586 2,271,007,989
**2017 figures are a forecast, using NASS Objective Estimate of 2.25 billion lbs.
There was a flurry of activity following the July reports, and then things quieted as many buyers went on vacation. Recently interest started picking up and the trend should continue as seasonal demand comes in. The industry is 18% sold on just new crop and 23% on total supply.
Today's shipping figure was strong and in-line with expectations. Market direction going forward will depend on 2017 crop receipts vs. NASS' estimate, in addition to the monthly shipment reports.
Upcoming news: August Position Report - Tuesday September 12