Almond Review - June 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the May 2017 position report

May shipments were 170.7 million lbs. vs. 178.1 million lbs. in 2016 - down 4%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments are up 13% YTD and up 10% for April

Exports, up 21% YTD, were off 10% for the month.  The decline is once again from China and India, which is largely due to a lack of in-shell supply left in California.

Commitments of 384 million lbs. are up 6% vs. a year ago.  With 1.77 billion shipped, the industry has sold or shipped 2.153 billion lbs.; which is 86% of total supply.

2017 CROP

The crop is progressing nicely with continued cool weather.  Insect and disease pressure has been minimal.  Sizing seems larger than the 2016 crop.  Crop development continues on track for a later harvest than 2016.

OUTLOOK:

Pricing in recent weeks has been quite stable.  

Today's shipment report seems to be at the high end of expectations.   

Most anticipate 2017 crop volume to surpass the subjective estimate of 2.20 billion lbs.  With new crop trading near current crop parity, and well below 2016 crop averages for pollinators, it seems the market is trading on an expected crop above 2.2 billion lbs.

For the first time, we have new crop commitment figures so early in the year. The industry has sold roughly 10% of the 2017 crop.  The domestic market, on track to ship about 667 million lbs. for 2016 crop, has already purchased 94 million lbs. of 2017 crop.  Export markets have purchased 115 million lbs.

May sales of current crop were 145 million lbs., up from 107 in May 2016.  With uncommited inventory down 6% vs. a year ago, and the anticipated late harvest, the short-term outlook for current crop, particularly certain sizes and qualities, looks very firm.  One unknown is what impact a tight current crop may have on new crop pricing, although many buyers have been awaiting the 2017 crop objective estimate before contracting significant volume of new crop. 

Upcoming dates:

Objective Crop Estimate - July 6

June Position Report - July 11

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

 

Further Info:

May 2017 Position Report

 

 

Almond Review - May 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the April 2017 position report

April shipments were 152 million lbs. vs. 167.6 million lbs. in 2016 - down 9.3%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments are up 14% YTD and continue erratic tendencies with a flat April

Exports, up 25% YTD, were off 13% for the month with most of the decline from China and India, where buyers have been working through stocks. 

Commitments of 410 million lbs. are down 5% vs. a year ago but historically solid.  With 1.599 billion shipped, the industry has sold or shipped over 2 billion lbs.; which is 96% of the salable crop or 80% of the total supply (including carry-in).

The crop is developing nicely with continued mild weather and ample water.

The crop is developing nicely with continued mild weather and ample water.

OUTLOOK:

For the short-term, one of the big questions is how much pent up demand remains and how full the pipelines already are.  A year ago, we were coming to the end of a heavy buying wave which was followed by a quiet summer.  Recently it's been quiet, so we may see the wave a little later than last year or see the buying more spread out.  

Looking out further, assuming a crop of 2.2 billion lbs., as estimated by NASS yesterday, we would only see an increased total supply of a few percent for the 2017 season.  Shipments are up 21% YTD and on track for an increase of perhaps 15% (if shipments average the same for the remaining 3 months).  So an increased supply of a few percent should mean almonds were underpriced today and would need to increase to slow the current rate of demand growth.  However, the estimate we have so far is only subjective and doesn't carry as much weight as the objective.  

Upcoming dates:

June Position Report - June 9

Objective Crop Estimate - July 6

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

 

Further Info:

April 2017 Position Report

NASS Subjective Estimate 2017

NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California's 2017 almond crop at 2.2 billion lbs.

An estimated 2,200 lbs. per acre on 1 million bearing acres.  The estimated yield is down 3.5% but estimated total production is up 2.8% due to increased bearing acreage from 940,000 in 2016.

This is based on a survey of growers from April 25 to May 4.  

Expectations a month ago were in the 2.2 billion lb. range but the industry became more optimistic about the crop potential and 2.2 is on the low end of recent expectations.

Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts.  

Tomorrow the April position report will be released and we will send another update.

Posted here is NASS' Subjective Report & Acreage Report

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares