Almond Review - October 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the September 2017 position report

September shipments were 190.6 million lbs. vs. 201.6 million lbs. in 2016 - down 5.4%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: -13.3% (+0.6% YTD)

Exports: -2.2% (-5.2% YTD)

Late pollinator receipts held September shipments from reaching their potential.  

CURRENCY:  The USD strengthened after the Fed announcements September 20, signaling future increased interest rates.  The USD is at 1.18 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Receipts YTD as of September 30 were 844.2 million lbs. vs. 960.6 million YTD 2016.  They continue to trail last season due to the late harvest and slow hulling season.

Insect damage so far is 2.35% vs. 1.24% a year ago.  This along with the high volume of doubles is reducing the availability of high quality grades and increasing supply of lower spec material.  

NASS seems correct in their assessment of a good Nonpareil crop and inconsistent pollinator crop.  We see a high degree of variability in pollinator yields (from field to field) and the following averages (preliminary and localized):  Monterey +5%, Wood Colony +14%, Butte -9%, Fritz -4%

Bud development for 2018

Bud development for 2018

OUTLOOK:

During September, handlers were limited in what to sell due to the late crop and challenging quality.  The heavy commitment figures with the prior report, along with concerns about 2017 yields, also kept some from selling.  Despite only moderate activity taking place (235 million lbs. or 9% of total supply), pricing moved up due to a lack of offers.  Shipped/Committed reached 1.08 billion lbs. or 41.5% of total supply - similar to a year ago.  

As more sellers returned to the market in October, activity has been low.  In any case, many handlers are fully committed for October from earlier sales.  Due to the supply challenges mentioned and more prolonged buying for a later Chinese new year, we will need at least 2 if not 3 more shipment reports to gauge demand / real consumption, though most buyers report it's quite healthy.  

Best wishes,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares 

 

Upcoming news:  October Position Report - Thursday November 9

Further Info: September 2017 Position Report

Share

Almond Review - September 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the August 2017 position report

August shipments were 168.6 million lbs. vs. 170 million lbs. in 2016 - down 1%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14.4% (all-time record)

Exports: -9% 

Inshell Exports were down 42% due to the later harvest and low inshell stocks.  Kernel exports were actually up 11% despite the late start.

CURRENCY:  The USD is weakened slightly further, currently at 1.20 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Receipts YTD as of August 31 were 215 million lbs. vs. 359 million YTD 2016.  Harvest started later and hulling/shelling advanced slower due to higher hull moisture, caused by humid weather.  

Nonpareil harvest is complete and even Monterey are being shook in much of the state.  Fritz is the only variety left in our area and those should be shook in 7-10 days.  High temperatures and mites caused considerable stress on the trees, with many losing more leaves than normal.  There is less chip & scratch and more doubles.  We are seeing and hearing of fields with very high insect damage, which is reflected in the state-wide inedible of 2% vs. 1.4%.    Yield reports remain inconsistent, with some of the best yields vs. last season in the later blooming areas of the west and north.  

Harvest 2017 09.jpg

OUTLOOK:

The industry's loss & exempt was adjusted upward from the estimated 2% to actual 2.26% for the 2016 crop year.  Adjusted carry-in was 398.6 million lbs., which is a very minor change but psychologically positive.  We may see a higher L&E this year due to the high insect damage.

The market was soft through second half August, and then firmed heading into today's report.  Shipments were on the high end of expectations but no big surprise.  The revelation today was the commitments of  677.2  vs. 481.8, up 40.5%. California handlers made an effort to sell off any remaining '16 crop and continue marketing the '17 crop.  The shipped + commited figure of 846 million lbs. (vs. 651)  brings the industry to 32.5% sold on total estimated supply of 2.6 billion lbs.  This is a very comfortable sold position for the industry and bullish news.  The seasonal increase in buying activity seems to be getting underway.                                                                              **The Almond Board corrected today's earlier reporting of 763.6 million lbs. of commitments to the correct 677.2.  We have updated the above figures with this correction.

Feel free to contact us with any feedback, questions or inquiries you have.

Best wishes for a great new season,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares 

 

Upcoming news:  September Position Report - Wednesday October 11

Further Info:  August 2017 Position Report - Corrected

Almond Review - August 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the July 2017 position report

July shipments were 153.9 million lbs. vs. 138.6 million lbs. in 2016 - up 11%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +12.6% for July

Exports, +17% YTD, +10.2% for July

Shipments for the crop year finished at  2.1 Billion lbs., up 16% vs. the prior crop year.   In the spring of 2016 many were thinking we'd be lucky to reach 10% growth, so this is quite a milestone.  The carry-over was reduced to 404 million lbs., down 4% from a year ago.  Half of this 404 carry-over was sold by July 31 and supply feels tight.

CURRENCY:  The USD is has continued weakening and is at 1.18 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Harvest is a week later than in 2016.  The almonds are coming off cleaner and shaking is moving along quickly.  We are just starting to receive the first Nonpareils so we do not have feedback on quality or yields. 

 

California Supply Overview:

                                               2017                     2016                     2015
Carry-In                            404,227,959          412,001,125           376,614,224
Crop                              2,250,000,000      2,135,730,461         1,894,393,765
2% Loss & Exempt             45,000,000           42,714,609              37,887,875
New Crop Marketable    2,654,227,959**    2,547,731,586        2,271,007,989

**2017 figures are a forecast, using NASS Objective Estimate of 2.25 billion lbs.

OUTLOOK:

There was a flurry of activity following the July reports, and then things quieted as many buyers went on vacation.  Recently interest started picking up and the trend should continue as seasonal demand comes in.  The industry is 18% sold on just new crop and 23% on total supply.

Today's shipping figure was strong and in-line with expectations.   Market direction going forward will depend on 2017 crop receipts vs. NASS' estimate, in addition to the monthly shipment reports. 

Upcoming news:  August Position Report - Tuesday September 12

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Further Info:

July 2017 Position Report

Water Supply Update