Almond Review - May 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the April 2017 position report

April shipments were 152 million lbs. vs. 167.6 million lbs. in 2016 - down 9.3%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments are up 14% YTD and continue erratic tendencies with a flat April

Exports, up 25% YTD, were off 13% for the month with most of the decline from China and India, where buyers have been working through stocks. 

Commitments of 410 million lbs. are down 5% vs. a year ago but historically solid.  With 1.599 billion shipped, the industry has sold or shipped over 2 billion lbs.; which is 96% of the salable crop or 80% of the total supply (including carry-in).

The crop is developing nicely with continued mild weather and ample water.

The crop is developing nicely with continued mild weather and ample water.

OUTLOOK:

For the short-term, one of the big questions is how much pent up demand remains and how full the pipelines already are.  A year ago, we were coming to the end of a heavy buying wave which was followed by a quiet summer.  Recently it's been quiet, so we may see the wave a little later than last year or see the buying more spread out.  

Looking out further, assuming a crop of 2.2 billion lbs., as estimated by NASS yesterday, we would only see an increased total supply of a few percent for the 2017 season.  Shipments are up 21% YTD and on track for an increase of perhaps 15% (if shipments average the same for the remaining 3 months).  So an increased supply of a few percent should mean almonds were underpriced today and would need to increase to slow the current rate of demand growth.  However, the estimate we have so far is only subjective and doesn't carry as much weight as the objective.  

Upcoming dates:

June Position Report - June 9

Objective Crop Estimate - July 6

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

 

Further Info:

April 2017 Position Report

NASS Subjective Estimate 2017

NASS released their subjective figure, forecasting California's 2017 almond crop at 2.2 billion lbs.

An estimated 2,200 lbs. per acre on 1 million bearing acres.  The estimated yield is down 3.5% but estimated total production is up 2.8% due to increased bearing acreage from 940,000 in 2016.

This is based on a survey of growers from April 25 to May 4.  

Expectations a month ago were in the 2.2 billion lb. range but the industry became more optimistic about the crop potential and 2.2 is on the low end of recent expectations.

Below is a historical comparison of the subjective and objective estimates with actual receipts.  

Tomorrow the April position report will be released and we will send another update.

Posted here is NASS' Subjective Report & Acreage Report

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Almond Review - April 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the March 2017 position report

March shipments were 178 million lbs. vs. 161 million lbs. in 2016 - up 10.6%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments continue a strong rebound:  +35% for March & +15% YTD

Exports continue with solid shipments but minimal gains vs. last spring that was so strong: +2% for March & +30% YTD

Total shipments Aug - March: +25.5%

Commitments of 440 million lbs. (+4%) reflect a slower sales month during the month (135 vs. 165 in March 2016).  Many buyers and sellers were both hesitant to contract in recent weeks.

THE 2016 CROP

Receipts reached 2.131 billion lbs. - up 13% vs. a year ago and pushing total marketable supply to just over 2.5 billion lbs.  

 

THE 2017 CROP

With a sizeable jump in acreage, most are expecting a 2017 crop similar or above 2016.  From south to north, the west side of the valley tends to have the strongest crops vs. the prior year.  The east tends to be more varied, especially in older blocks.  The mild spring weather continues to benefit kernel sizing and point toward a later harvest.    

Spain's crop was reportedly progressing very well but recently some frost damage occurred.  

WATER:  Today it was announced that the Federal Water Districts would receive 100% water allocation for the first time since 2006.  Precipitation so far is double the normal and appears on the verge of setting records.  

OUTLOOK:

For the remaining 4 months, the domestic market seems poised for strong shipments relative to the slower prior season.  Exports were very strong last year and may fall short, however strong export commitments (+14%) indicate the figures could surprise us.  If shipments for April-July match last year, the industry would ship over 2.1 and have a slightly lower carry out than the 412 carried in. 

Numerous reports may influence this unclear and quiet almond market.  If there is significant pent up demand, we could see change before the reports.      

NASS Acreage Report - April 26

NASS Subjective Crop Estimate - May 10

May Position Report - May 11

June Position Report - June 9

Objective Crop Estimate - July 6

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

 

Further Info:

March 2017 Position Report

Water Supply Update 

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