Almond Review - September 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the August 2017 position report

August shipments were 168.6 million lbs. vs. 170 million lbs. in 2016 - down 1%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14.4% (all-time record)

Exports: -9% 

Inshell Exports were down 42% due to the later harvest and low inshell stocks.  Kernel exports were actually up 11% despite the late start.

CURRENCY:  The USD is weakened slightly further, currently at 1.20 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Receipts YTD as of August 31 were 215 million lbs. vs. 359 million YTD 2016.  Harvest started later and hulling/shelling advanced slower due to higher hull moisture, caused by humid weather.  

Nonpareil harvest is complete and even Monterey are being shook in much of the state.  Fritz is the only variety left in our area and those should be shook in 7-10 days.  High temperatures and mites caused considerable stress on the trees, with many losing more leaves than normal.  There is less chip & scratch and more doubles.  We are seeing and hearing of fields with very high insect damage, which is reflected in the state-wide inedible of 2% vs. 1.4%.    Yield reports remain inconsistent, with some of the best yields vs. last season in the later blooming areas of the west and north.  

Harvest 2017 09.jpg

OUTLOOK:

The industry's loss & exempt was adjusted upward from the estimated 2% to actual 2.26% for the 2016 crop year.  Adjusted carry-in was 398.6 million lbs., which is a very minor change but psychologically positive.  We may see a higher L&E this year due to the high insect damage.

The market was soft through second half August, and then firmed heading into today's report.  Shipments were on the high end of expectations but no big surprise.  The revelation today was the commitments of  677.2  vs. 481.8, up 40.5%. California handlers made an effort to sell off any remaining '16 crop and continue marketing the '17 crop.  The shipped + commited figure of 846 million lbs. (vs. 651)  brings the industry to 32.5% sold on total estimated supply of 2.6 billion lbs.  This is a very comfortable sold position for the industry and bullish news.  The seasonal increase in buying activity seems to be getting underway.                                                                              **The Almond Board corrected today's earlier reporting of 763.6 million lbs. of commitments to the correct 677.2.  We have updated the above figures with this correction.

Feel free to contact us with any feedback, questions or inquiries you have.

Best wishes for a great new season,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares 

 

Upcoming news:  September Position Report - Wednesday October 11

Further Info:  August 2017 Position Report - Corrected

Almond Review - August 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the July 2017 position report

July shipments were 153.9 million lbs. vs. 138.6 million lbs. in 2016 - up 11%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +12.6% for July

Exports, +17% YTD, +10.2% for July

Shipments for the crop year finished at  2.1 Billion lbs., up 16% vs. the prior crop year.   In the spring of 2016 many were thinking we'd be lucky to reach 10% growth, so this is quite a milestone.  The carry-over was reduced to 404 million lbs., down 4% from a year ago.  Half of this 404 carry-over was sold by July 31 and supply feels tight.

CURRENCY:  The USD is has continued weakening and is at 1.18 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Harvest is a week later than in 2016.  The almonds are coming off cleaner and shaking is moving along quickly.  We are just starting to receive the first Nonpareils so we do not have feedback on quality or yields. 

 

California Supply Overview:

                                               2017                     2016                     2015
Carry-In                            404,227,959          412,001,125           376,614,224
Crop                              2,250,000,000      2,135,730,461         1,894,393,765
2% Loss & Exempt             45,000,000           42,714,609              37,887,875
New Crop Marketable    2,654,227,959**    2,547,731,586        2,271,007,989

**2017 figures are a forecast, using NASS Objective Estimate of 2.25 billion lbs.

OUTLOOK:

There was a flurry of activity following the July reports, and then things quieted as many buyers went on vacation.  Recently interest started picking up and the trend should continue as seasonal demand comes in.  The industry is 18% sold on just new crop and 23% on total supply.

Today's shipping figure was strong and in-line with expectations.   Market direction going forward will depend on 2017 crop receipts vs. NASS' estimate, in addition to the monthly shipment reports. 

Upcoming news:  August Position Report - Tuesday September 12

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Further Info:

July 2017 Position Report

Water Supply Update

Almond Review - July 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2017 position report

June shipments were 177 million lbs. vs. 174 million lbs. in 2016 

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +22% for June

Exports, +17% YTD, -7% for June.  

Commitments of 294 million lbs. are up 11.5% vs. a year ago.  With 1.95 billion shipped, the industry has sold or shipped 2.24 billion lbs.; which is nearly 90% of total supply.

CURRENCY:  The USD is still quite strong, but has weakened in recent months.  From a low point of 1.04 USD to the Euro in December, its currently at 1.14.  

NEW DEMAND TREND:

We see exciting new products launched in South Korea, South America and other export markets, where some snack companies are marketing nuts to kids as a healthy and fun snack option.  This has been a largely untapped segment of the world market, with a few exceptions like India.

2017 CROP

Nonpareil hulls are still splitting and indicating a harvest about a week later than last year.  We anticipate shipping new crop Nonpareil in second half August.  

In their survey, NASS found very high double counts.  This could cause making Supreme or even SSR more difficult with certain pollinators like Carmel Types.  David Doll, UC Pomology Farm Advisor, attributes the high double counts to the good early spring (post-bloom) growing conditions. 

Branch 2017 07.jpg

OUTLOOK:

Pricing remained stable heading into the July 6 NASS estimate.  The 2.25 billion lb. estimate was low enough to push 2017 crop pricing up at least .05/lb., on very limited trading.  The industry is roughly 13% sold for the new season.

Today's shipping figure was clearly above expectations, which is one additional bit of bullish news for the market.

Upcoming publication:  July Position Report - Thursday August 10

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Further Info:

June 2017 Position Report