Almond Review - Jan 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the December 2014 position report.  

December shipments were 148.1 million lbs. vs. 157.6 million lbs. last season.

Down 6% Overall.  

Domestic shipments up 2.1% 

Exports off 9.5%

DEMAND:  

December shipments were in-line with industry expectations.  The slow-downs at the California ports may have contributed to some of the shortfall in exports, though some of the November rollovers shipped in December.

China's return to the market is reflected in the 15 million lbs. shipped vs. 6.5 million in Dec 2013.  Western Europe and the Middle East continued to lag, off 19% and 34% respectively.  

Commitments were 377 million lbs., off 12%

THE 2014 CROP:

Crop receipts rose 77 million lbs. to 1.805 billion lbs. so far - still far short of the 2.1 objective estimate and last season's 2.01 billion lbs.   Nonpareil receipts reached just 700 million lbs. - still 13% short of last season.  

 

OUTLOOK:

Assuming a final crop of 1.85 billion lbs., the industry is approximately 65% sold or shipped.

With buyers returning from holidays this week, we have seen an increase in activity, particularly out of China, India, and the Middle East.  With low levels of forward coverage and low stocks in many regions, we expect good demand to continue for the near term.   

California's drought continues to play a key role in the market.  While December was a very rainy month, snow pack is at 43% of normal.  The warm weather has been working away at what snow we have received.  The forecasts for the coming weeks call for very little rainfall.  The Water Supply Agency still forecasts a 65% chance for El Niño conditions to be present this winter and spring.  For more related info please see attached Water Supply Update 

Posted here is the December 2014 Position Report 

The next position report is due for release Wednesday February 11

Best wishes to you all for 2015!

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares