Almond Review - April 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the March 2015 position report.  

March shipments were 190 million lbs. vs. 151 million lbs. last season.

UP 25.7% Overall.  

Domestic shipments were essentially flat and all the growth came from Exports.

DEMAND:  

The 42% increase in exports was a result of the improvement in the port situation, and matches the 42% decrease seen in January.  

Commitments are flat at approximately 350 million lbs.  

THE 2015 CROP:

Following good bloom weather, growers have been disappointed by the amount of crop set in many orchards.  While the Nonpareil bloom was widely reported as weak, the disappointment in the actual crop set is widespread across many varieties and many areas of the central and southern parts of the valley.  The  new and young acreage will help, as yields on mature acreage appear off from last season .  With the early bloom and hot weather during March, we expect another very early harvest.  The timing of the hot weather reduces kernel size potential, though the lower amount of kernels per tree in many orchards should help with size.


OUTLOOK:

If shipments for the remainder of the season are flat to last season, we'll have a carry out of approximately 375 million lbs.  If shipments continued at the average decline of 9%, the carry out would be about 420 million lbs.  These figures are above last year's 350 million lb. level, but still somewhat low.

Disappointment in the crop set, along with water concerns, have pushed current crop pricing up to record levels for many grades, especially small sizes, and brought new crop pricing up to near parity.  The market sentiment remains bullish following today's report.  

For water related info please see attached Water Supply Update  

Posted here is the March 2015 Position Report 

NASS' Subjective Estimate is expected May 5.

The April Position Report is due Tuesday May 12

Please feel free to contact us with any feedback or questions.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares