Almond Review - June 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the May 2015 position report.  

May shipments were 139.6 million lbs. vs. 143.7 million lbs. last season.

Down 3% Overall.  

Domestic off 4% 

Exports off 2%

Commitments were 332 million lbs., up 17%. 

DEMAND:  

May shipments were expected to be similar or up.  India showed another strong month, up 25%.  

The early 2015 port slowdowns caused delays in shipments and a very strong March and solid April.  Currently, many buyers around the world are receiving these delayed shipments, and working through them before returning to buy. 

THE 2015 CROP:

The crop is developing well with minimal issues aside from the ongoing water challenges.  It continues to look like an early harvest with the first hull split seen early in the week, 3-4 weeks ahead of normal and earlier than last season.  With the 2015 weather, insect pressure should be high, but growers are preparing more for this after last year's high pressure.

There is tremendous variation in the crop among regions, orchards, and varieties.  Independence and Monterey look to have the best crops.  Butte and Padre seem up from last season.  Nonpareil and some pollinators like Carmel are showing more variation and holes in the crop.  

 

NonpareilsJune2015

OUTLOOK:

The industry is approximately 86% (1.87 billion lbs.) sold or shipped.  Uncommitted (Unsold) inventory is 290 million lbs., down 12% from a year ago. 

The 2014 crop year shipments to-date are off 6.8%, matching up very closely with the 7% decline in supply. 

Despite the slow demand for current crop, sellers have been fairly patient due to their limited inventory, and uncertainty about water and the 2015 crop.  Most buyers are uncertain what impact current prices will have on their sales, and those who are covering far forward are buying because of drought/supply concerns.  Sellers have been particularly patient with new crop sales.  Close attention will be paid to the objective estimate, shipments, initial crop receipts, and rainfall.

On May 29 the SWRCB (State Water Resources Control Board) has taken significantly more water for environmental uses, causing a lot of concern in the agriculture community.  For more info please see link to the SWRCB News Article and attached Water Supply Update 

Posted here is the May 2015 Position Report 

Upcoming dates of interest:

NASS' Objective Estimate - Wednesday July 1

Next Position Report - Friday July 10

Please feel free to contact us with any feedback or questions.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares