Almond Review - July 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2015 position report.  

June shipments were 150.8 million lbs. vs. 152.8 million lbs. last season.

Domestic up 1.8% 

Exports off 3%

Commitments were 262 million lbs., up 10%. 

DEMAND:    

We've seen steady buying interest from around the world since the NASS objective estimate was released.  The 1.80 was below industry expectations and pricing has moved up to new record highs.  

THE 2015 CROP:

Last week we had a hot spell and this week we are in a cool spell.  Harvest timing appears a few days ahead of last year.  Some water stressed orchards will begin shaking Nonpareils next week.  Many growers will not begin until August.  

Mite pressure has been low but we may start to see more after last week's hot weather. Live navel orange worms are being found readily the past few days, which is a concern for growers.

Between yesterday and today, there has been snow in the Sierras, rain in the foothills, and some rain in the valley.  Hopefully this is a sign of the changing weather patterns, though we're crossing our fingers for a smooth harvest.   

OUTLOOK:

Assuming July shipments are similar to last year and L&E is adjusted to 2%, our industry will carry out about 360 million lbs. on August 1.  This is very similar to last season's 350.  Assuming NASS' 1.80 crop receipts and 2% L&E for the 2015 crop year, California supply will be reduced by about 56 million lbs. and demand would need to slow by about 3% to have a similar carry out into the 2016 crop year.

Spain is anticipating a good crop and could make up for part of the estimated short fall in California.  Spanish growers generally do not have the same financial strength as California growers and may take up more of the early shipment months.

The market remains bullish following today's report release.  Initial crop receipt news in the coming weeks and months should have an impact on pricing going forward.  

Posted here is a Water Supply Update

Posted here is the June 2015 Position Repor

The July Position Report is due for release Wednesday August 12

Please feel free to contact us with any feedback or questions.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares