Almond Review - Oct 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the September 2015 position report.

September shipments were 142.9 million lbs. vs. 163 million lbs. last season.

Domestic up 4.4% 

Exports off 19.4%

DEMAND remained very quiet until late September when China and Europe returned to the market in a big way.  Shipments to the U.A.E. were off 64% due to importer financial issues in Dubai.  We do not believe this is reflective of consumption in the region, which has been consuming almonds for thousands of years.  Shipments to India were up slightly.  Despite the larger Spanish crop, shipments to Europe were off only 7%.    China remains a wild card with shipments of 33% for the month and the crop year.  The U.S. market continues to impress with it's second record breaking month in a row (and 4 out of the last 6 months).

THE 2015 CROP:
Crop receipts as of Sept 30 were 922 million lbs., just below the same time a year ago, despite the early crop and compressed harvest.  Insect damage is running about 20% higher than last season.  Harvest is about 95 - 99 % complete depending on the region.  

Most in the industry are still expecting the crop to come in closer to 1.7 than the 1.8 billion lbs. estimated by NASS, and this belief seems re-affirmed by today's crop receipt figure.  

 

OUTLOOK:

Crop commitments reached 440 million lbs. vs. 386.7 million lbs. at the same time last season, up 14%.  This is surprising and a big turn-around from a month ago.   

As of today prior to the report, the market sentiment seemed neutral.  Playing into the minds of sellers is the fact that it is nearly mid October and we have received minimal rain, and very little is in the forecast.  Everyone is hoping for a major change in California's weather patterns.  

Posted here is a Water Supply Update

Posted here is the September 2015 Position Report  

The October Position Report is due for release Wednesday November  11 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions or feedback.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares