Almond Review - Dec 2015

Today the Almond Board of California released the November 2015 position report.

November shipments were 140.5 million lbs. vs. 145.6 million lbs. last season.

Domestic shipments were off 5.4% and exports were off 2.4%

DEMAND was soft following the past position report release and then picked up considerably when the market bottomed and started rebounding about 20 days ago.  Overall sales in November were limited as sellers pulled back in the last half of the month due to the changing market momentum.   

China/Hong Kong has been only nibbling all season yet still managed to be up 14% for the month (and up 18.6% factoring in shipments via Vietnam).  

India was up 84%, though some of these loads are being re-sold due to defaults.  The good news in this market is that consumption has been excellent so the loads in India's ports are reportedly being bought up quickly.  

Europe was off 7%.  Spain's crop is reported to have come in less than estimated so we anticipate this market to continue to recover (off 10% for the season).  

The Middle East was off 19% as Dubai finishes working through it's problems.

The U.S. market being off 5.4% was a turnaround from October where shipments were off over 20%.  The rest of North America was up 5% for the month.  

THE 2015 CROP:
Crop receipts as of November 30 were 1.75 billion lbs., up from 1.45 billion lbs. last month.  We were trailing last year's receipts by 17 million lbs. then by 67 million lbs. and now are ahead by 28 million lbs.  This is an early harvest with increased shelling capacity, but the receipts were still higher than expected and most now believe receipts will surpass the 1.80 estimate.  The young acreage must have contributed more to receipts than the industry expected.  Northern receipts also helped, running 15% of the crop vs. 12% of the crop a year ago.

 

OUTLOOK:

Committed unshipped was 429 million lbs., down 5.4% vs. a year ago.  This again demonstrates low activity for the month.  

There is positive news in the report with some of the export markets improving including some considerably, but overall today's report is less positive than anticipated.  

Last season Dec - Feb shipments were impacted by the port slow downs, especially January shipments.  The industry is sitting similarly behind to where we were at this time last season (off over 12%) and could start to make up for some of this in the coming months as there are no port issues. Weather in February and March may also bring some significant change to the market in the coming months.  

Posted here is a Water Supply Update

Posted here is the November 2015 Position Report

The December Position Report is due for release Tuesday January 12

Happy Holidays!

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares