Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2016 position report.
June shipments were 174 million lbs. vs. 150.8 million lbs. in '15 - UP 15.4%
Today's shipment figure was again on the high side of expectations. Shipments for the season are down 1%. Jan-June up 8.8%. April-June up 17.7%
Low to moderate buying activity took place in June, with sales of 76 million lbs. Commitments are slightly above a year ago.
Shipment re-cap for major markets:
Month Crop year
U.S.A. +1.8% -7.7%
W. Europe +41% +10%
Middle East -39% -12%
India/Pakistan +45% +7%
China/HK +77% +12%
Japan -13% -5%
THE 2016 CROP
Very hot weather in second half June seemed to stall hull split development in some orchards. There is a wider variance this season but generally the crop looks to be earlier than normal but a few days later than last season. Insect pressure has remained lower.
Following the bullish crop estimate, most sellers have been off the market awaiting today's position report before re-entering.
Buyer and seller expectations still lean toward a larger crop than the NASS figure, but the 2.05 number quieted much of the 2.2 talk.
July should be another strong ship figure and may bring the carry-out down to the low 400's.
Pricing has moved up about .10 to .15/lb. in the past week. Both buyers and sellers remain cautious following the painful '15 crop year, which could help reduce price volatility.
Ahead: July Position Report on Thursday August 11