Almond Review - July '2016

Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2016 position report.

June shipments were 174 million lbs. vs. 150.8 million lbs. in '15 - UP 15.4%

DEMAND

Today's shipment figure was again on the high side of expectations.  Shipments for the season are down 1%.  Jan-June up 8.8%.    April-June up 17.7%

Low to moderate buying activity took place in June, with sales of 76 million lbs.  Commitments are slightly above a year ago.  

Shipment re-cap for major markets:

                                   Month          Crop year

U.S.A.                          +1.8%             -7.7%

W. Europe                    +41%              +10%

Middle East                  -39%              -12%

India/Pakistan              +45%              +7%

China/HK                    +77%            +12%

Japan                            -13%               -5%

THE 2016 CROP

Very hot weather in second half June seemed to stall hull split development in some orchards.  There is a wider variance this season but generally the crop looks to be earlier than normal but a few days later than last season.  Insect pressure has remained lower.

OUTLOOK:

Following the bullish crop estimate, most sellers have been off the market awaiting today's position report before re-entering.  

Buyer and seller expectations still lean toward a larger crop than the NASS figure, but the 2.05 number quieted much of the 2.2 talk.

July should be another strong ship figure and may bring the carry-out down to the low 400's.

Pricing has moved up about .10 to .15/lb. in the past week.  Both buyers and sellers remain cautious following the painful '15 crop year, which could help reduce price volatility.  

Posted here:

Water Supply Update

June 2016 Position Report

Ahead:  July Position Report on Thursday August 11

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares