Almond Review - December 2016

Today the Almond Board of California released the November 2016 position report

November shipments were 187.5 million lbs. vs. 140.5 million lbs. in 2015 - UP 33%

DEMAND

November sales were 150 million lbs. (**correction, not 130) which is approximately 7% of the crop.

Shipments so far for Aug - Nov are up 39%.

Total shipped & committed reached 1.344 billion lbs. - approximately 65 - 67% of the projected marketable crop (using 2.05 to 2.10) and nearly 55% of total supply (crop + carry-in).

THE 2016 CROP

Receipts reached 1.93 billion lbs. - up 9.9% vs. a year ago.   No surprises here.

Land IQ Acreage Study

With advances in technology, the industry can now map plantings using satellite data and results were released yesterday.  As expected, the survey showed more acreage than NASS has been able to locate.  Total acreage (bearing and non-bearing) is estimated at 1.106 million acres in 2014 vs. NASS estimate of 1.050.  Surprisingly, despite the big increase in plantings, NASS has become increasingly accurate and this 2014 difference was only 5.4% vs. a 9.4% difference when looking retroactively to 2010.  The discrepancies have existed for years and mean state-wide yields per acre were actually less than previously estimated, and do not impact total volume.  Work is being done to complete the 2016 acreage.  To use the interactive maps or learn more, click here.  

OUTLOOK:

With more sellers than buyers for much of November, pricing decreased 0.20/lb.  India's lack of buying has contributed to this decline.  Their government demonetized all the high value bills to discourage black market activity, which caused major disruptions in their market.

As we saw in early November, we have seen a slight bump in buying activity and pricing in the few days leading up to this report.  Some sellers remain patient, expecting another wave of buying in January.   The extent to which this materializes depends how quickly afloat product sells through.  We do not expect much impact on the market from today's report.  

LAND IQ Fact Sheet - Mapping of Almond Acreage

Water Supply Update

November 2016 Position Report

Next position report:  Wednesday January 11, 2017  (**originally planned for Jan 12)

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares