Today the Almond Board of California released the March 2017 position report
March shipments were 178 million lbs. vs. 161 million lbs. in 2016 - up 10.6%
U.S. shipments continue a strong rebound: +35% for March & +15% YTD
Exports continue with solid shipments but minimal gains vs. last spring that was so strong: +2% for March & +30% YTD
Total shipments Aug - March: +25.5%
Commitments of 440 million lbs. (+4%) reflect a slower sales month during the month (135 vs. 165 in March 2016). Many buyers and sellers were both hesitant to contract in recent weeks.
THE 2016 CROP
Receipts reached 2.131 billion lbs. - up 13% vs. a year ago and pushing total marketable supply to just over 2.5 billion lbs.
THE 2017 CROP
With a sizeable jump in acreage, most are expecting a 2017 crop similar or above 2016. From south to north, the west side of the valley tends to have the strongest crops vs. the prior year. The east tends to be more varied, especially in older blocks. The mild spring weather continues to benefit kernel sizing and point toward a later harvest.
Spain's crop was reportedly progressing very well but recently some frost damage occurred.
WATER: Today it was announced that the Federal Water Districts would receive 100% water allocation for the first time since 2006. Precipitation so far is double the normal and appears on the verge of setting records.
For the remaining 4 months, the domestic market seems poised for strong shipments relative to the slower prior season. Exports were very strong last year and may fall short, however strong export commitments (+14%) indicate the figures could surprise us. If shipments for April-July match last year, the industry would ship over 2.1 and have a slightly lower carry out than the 412 carried in.
Numerous reports may influence this unclear and quiet almond market. If there is significant pent up demand, we could see change before the reports.
NASS Acreage Report - April 26
NASS Subjective Crop Estimate - May 10
May Position Report - May 11
June Position Report - June 9
Objective Crop Estimate - July 6