Almond Review - July 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2017 position report

June shipments were 177 million lbs. vs. 174 million lbs. in 2016 

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +22% for June

Exports, +17% YTD, -7% for June.  

Commitments of 294 million lbs. are up 11.5% vs. a year ago.  With 1.95 billion shipped, the industry has sold or shipped 2.24 billion lbs.; which is nearly 90% of total supply.

CURRENCY:  The USD is still quite strong, but has weakened in recent months.  From a low point of 1.04 USD to the Euro in December, its currently at 1.14.  

NEW DEMAND TREND:

We see exciting new products launched in South Korea, South America and other export markets, where some snack companies are marketing nuts to kids as a healthy and fun snack option.  This has been a largely untapped segment of the world market, with a few exceptions like India.

2017 CROP

Nonpareil hulls are still splitting and indicating a harvest about a week later than last year.  We anticipate shipping new crop Nonpareil in second half August.  

In their survey, NASS found very high double counts.  This could cause making Supreme or even SSR more difficult with certain pollinators like Carmel Types.  David Doll, UC Pomology Farm Advisor, attributes the high double counts to the good early spring (post-bloom) growing conditions. 

Branch 2017 07.jpg

OUTLOOK:

Pricing remained stable heading into the July 6 NASS estimate.  The 2.25 billion lb. estimate was low enough to push 2017 crop pricing up at least .05/lb., on very limited trading.  The industry is roughly 13% sold for the new season.

Today's shipping figure was clearly above expectations, which is one additional bit of bullish news for the market.

Upcoming publication:  July Position Report - Thursday August 10

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Further Info:

June 2017 Position Report