Almond Review - August 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the July 2017 position report

July shipments were 153.9 million lbs. vs. 138.6 million lbs. in 2016 - up 11%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14% YTD, +12.6% for July

Exports, +17% YTD, +10.2% for July

Shipments for the crop year finished at  2.1 Billion lbs., up 16% vs. the prior crop year.   In the spring of 2016 many were thinking we'd be lucky to reach 10% growth, so this is quite a milestone.  The carry-over was reduced to 404 million lbs., down 4% from a year ago.  Half of this 404 carry-over was sold by July 31 and supply feels tight.

CURRENCY:  The USD is has continued weakening and is at 1.18 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Harvest is a week later than in 2016.  The almonds are coming off cleaner and shaking is moving along quickly.  We are just starting to receive the first Nonpareils so we do not have feedback on quality or yields. 

 

California Supply Overview:

                                               2017                     2016                     2015
Carry-In                            404,227,959          412,001,125           376,614,224
Crop                              2,250,000,000      2,135,730,461         1,894,393,765
2% Loss & Exempt             45,000,000           42,714,609              37,887,875
New Crop Marketable    2,654,227,959**    2,547,731,586        2,271,007,989

**2017 figures are a forecast, using NASS Objective Estimate of 2.25 billion lbs.

OUTLOOK:

There was a flurry of activity following the July reports, and then things quieted as many buyers went on vacation.  Recently interest started picking up and the trend should continue as seasonal demand comes in.  The industry is 18% sold on just new crop and 23% on total supply.

Today's shipping figure was strong and in-line with expectations.   Market direction going forward will depend on 2017 crop receipts vs. NASS' estimate, in addition to the monthly shipment reports. 

Upcoming news:  August Position Report - Tuesday September 12

Best regards,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares

Further Info:

July 2017 Position Report

Water Supply Update