Almond Review - September 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the August 2017 position report

August shipments were 168.6 million lbs. vs. 170 million lbs. in 2016 - down 1%

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +14.4% (all-time record)

Exports: -9% 

Inshell Exports were down 42% due to the later harvest and low inshell stocks.  Kernel exports were actually up 11% despite the late start.

CURRENCY:  The USD is weakened slightly further, currently at 1.20 to the Euro. 

2017 CROP

Receipts YTD as of August 31 were 215 million lbs. vs. 359 million YTD 2016.  Harvest started later and hulling/shelling advanced slower due to higher hull moisture, caused by humid weather.  

Nonpareil harvest is complete and even Monterey are being shook in much of the state.  Fritz is the only variety left in our area and those should be shook in 7-10 days.  High temperatures and mites caused considerable stress on the trees, with many losing more leaves than normal.  There is less chip & scratch and more doubles.  We are seeing and hearing of fields with very high insect damage, which is reflected in the state-wide inedible of 2% vs. 1.4%.    Yield reports remain inconsistent, with some of the best yields vs. last season in the later blooming areas of the west and north.  

Harvest 2017 09.jpg

OUTLOOK:

The industry's loss & exempt was adjusted upward from the estimated 2% to actual 2.26% for the 2016 crop year.  Adjusted carry-in was 398.6 million lbs., which is a very minor change but psychologically positive.  We may see a higher L&E this year due to the high insect damage.

The market was soft through second half August, and then firmed heading into today's report.  Shipments were on the high end of expectations but no big surprise.  The revelation today was the commitments of  677.2  vs. 481.8, up 40.5%. California handlers made an effort to sell off any remaining '16 crop and continue marketing the '17 crop.  The shipped + commited figure of 846 million lbs. (vs. 651)  brings the industry to 32.5% sold on total estimated supply of 2.6 billion lbs.  This is a very comfortable sold position for the industry and bullish news.  The seasonal increase in buying activity seems to be getting underway.                                                                              **The Almond Board corrected today's earlier reporting of 763.6 million lbs. of commitments to the correct 677.2.  We have updated the above figures with this correction.

Feel free to contact us with any feedback, questions or inquiries you have.

Best wishes for a great new season,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares 

 

Upcoming news:  September Position Report - Wednesday October 11

Further Info:  August 2017 Position Report - Corrected