Almond Review - November 2017

Today the Almond Board of California released the October 2017 position report

October shipments were 246.5 million lbs. vs. 235.6 million lbs. in 2016 - up 4.6% from what was the largest shipping month in history.  

DEMAND

U.S. shipments: +6.3% (+2.5% YTD)

Exports: +4.1% (-1.4% YTD)

CURRENCY:  The USD strengthened slightly, currently at 1.166 to the Euro (vs. 1.18)

2017 CROP

Receipts YTD were 1.529 billion lbs. vs. 1.56 billion YTD 2016.  With some increased efficiencies and hulling capacity in California, about 117 million lbs. more were received vs. October 2016.  

Bud Set 2017 11.jpg

 

REVIEW & OUTLOOK:

Sales during October were 201 million lbs., up 10% from a year ago, with over 3/4 of these coming from export markets.   With moderate buying activity, and plenty of selling support, pricing softened, particularly on lower quality grades.  Pricing was very stable heading into today's report. 

Shipped/Committed reached 49% of total supply (1.28 billion lbs.) -  maintaining a similar pace to last year.  

China is behind on shipments (-12%) due to their later Chinese New Year and the timing should help boost the November/December figures.  It seems handler capacity is very booked up for November.  With the December position report (due January 11) we should have a much better grasp on consumption and the 2017 crop size.  At the rate we are going, about 60% of the crop should already be sold by then.   

Today's news is right in-line with expectations and should be neutral.  Short-term pent-up demand coming in (including from China), or a more widely perceived strong outlook for November, could potentially bring some strength to the market.  On the other hand, continued selling support may hold back too much firming.

Best wishes,

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares 

 

Upcoming news:  November Position Report - Tuesday December 12

Further Info:  October 2017 Position Report