Almond Review - July 2014

Today the Almond Board of California released the June 2014 position report.  

June shipments were 152.8 million lbs. vs. 137.3 million lbs. last season.

Up 11.3% Overall.  

Domestic shipments were up 4% 

Exports were up 15.7%

DEMAND:  

Shipments are up 5% for the season.  This was the fourth straight record month.  European shipments were flat.  China was off 22% and Russia was off 25%.  

Domestic shipments were up 13% for August through March but are only up 1% for April-June.  This moderation in shipments has us keeping a close eye on our number one market.  

Some of the impressive growth was shown in:

India up 11% 

Japan up 34%

South Korea up 26%

Middle East up 88% with reports of good Ramadan sales.

Commitment figures were 238 million lbs., down 7% from the same time last season.  Sales for June were 108 million lbs. - down just slightly from the 110 in June 2013.

 

THE 2014 CROP:

NASS' objective report confirmed kernel sizing is expected to be larger (6.6%) than 2013 and very similar to 2011. The almonds are longer, wider, and thicker.  We believe the cooler weather in the 30 days following bloom contributed to this.   Monterey is the exception; forecast to be slightly smaller than last season and 12.5% smaller than 2011. 

The crop continues to progress well and very early.  We expect our first receipts of Nonpareil to the huller/sheller in a few weeks.

OUTLOOK:

Following the NASS estimate of 2.10 billion lbs., pricing came off by about 0.10 to .15/lb. but has since recovered.

We still anticipate total shipments for the '13 season in the range of 1950 million lbs. (up 5%) and a similar carry-out to last season.

Very little new crop has been sold, but both buyers and sellers are showing a lot of patience.  So far, the sellers are showing more patience then buyers which helped pricing recover. Concerns about the drought's impact on the 2015 crop continue to be a major bullish factor in the market.

In the coming few months some key things to watch include yield reports (the first harvested orchards tend to be down and bullish news) and shipment figures.  

Posted here is the June 2014 Position Report

Please feel free to call or email us with any questions or feedback.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares