Almond Review - November 2014

Today the Almond Board of California released the October 2014 position report.  

October shipments were 204 million lbs. vs. 228 million lbs. last season.

Down 10.5% Overall.  

Domestic shipments up 8% 

Exports off 17%

DEMAND:  

October shipments were in-line with industry expectations, though perhaps toward the lower end of what seemed to be an expected 200 to 220 for the month.  

In the key export markets we saw:

Western Europe up 2%

Central / Eastern Europe off 62%

China/Hong Kong off 44%

India up 16%

Japan off 26%

South Korea off 14%

Middle East / North Africa off 24%

Shipments for the crop year are off 8% overall.  

Commitments were 458 million lbs., off 13%

THE 2014 CROP:

With a very early harvest, we will have a better idea of the total crop size next month than we normally do.  Crop receipts as of Oct 31 were 1.5 billion lbs. vs. 1.39 last season.  Nonpareil receipts were 635 million lbs., up slightly.

Yields were extremely varied among varieties, orchards and regions of the state, making this a particularly hard crop to estimate during harvest.   In our area, our Aldrich were off on average by 38%, Avalon was off by 30%, while Price was up by 62%.  Generally industry expectations for the total receipts have improved as we've moved through the hulling & shelling season.

Budset201411.jpg

 

OUTLOOK:

Buying interest was low in much of October but has improved at times in the past couple weeks.  Some sellers have pulled back and been more patient heading into today's report.

Our industry is approximately half sold (or shipped).  The low commitment levels are consistent with what many buyers in export markets have been indicating; that their forward commitments are low and they need to return to the market to cover needs in the short-term.  Inventory levels in many export markets, with the exception of India, seem very low.  The patience of California sellers will be key to the forward direction of this market.  This market may remain unsettled and we may continue to see slight movements up and down with the weather and levels of buying interest.  

Posted here is the October 2014 Position Report

Posted here is a Water Supply Update

The next position report is due for release Tuesday December 9

Please feel free to call or email us with any questions or feedback.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares