This objective estimate for California 2014 production of 2.1 Billion lbs. is 7.7% above NASS' subjective (based on grower opinions) estimate of 1.95 billion lbs.
The objective is 4.6% above 2013 crop receipts of 2.007 billion lbs.
NASS based their estimate on 860,000 bearing acres. They forecast the nut set per tree slightly down (0.6%). Kernel sizing is expected to be up 6.6% over last year's record low sizing. Estimated trees per acre was revised up from 112 to 114 trees per acre.
Posted here is the NASS Objective Report for 2014
Posted here is NASS' Presentation
For fun and to remind us how much the industry has grown, we posted our June 1993 Newsletter
The Spanish almond cooperatives estimated their crop at 116.7 million lbs., up approximately 55 million lbs. or 88% over last year's very light crop. Opinions on the Italian crop are for an increase of 12 to 25 million lbs over a very light 2013.
We will learn more about the southern hemisphere crop expectations after their bloom in August.
We think NASS' objective estimate is on the high end of industry expectations and may be bearish news for the market, although sellers have been very patient in recent months. The drought concerns have kept many growers and handlers off the market. We will learn more on the market reaction in the coming days and plan to send additional info Thursday July 10, after the June Position Report is released.
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.