This objective estimate for California 2015 production of 1.80 Billion lbs. is 2.7% below NASS' subjective (based on grower opinions) estimate of 1.85 billion lbs. and 3.7% below '14 crop receipts. In their talk, NASS pointed out that 2014 and 2015 were two of the rare years in recent history where growers estimated (with the subjective) a smaller crop than the year before. The drought has taken a toll on production with the yield expected to be the lowest per acre since 2009, at 2020 lbs./acre.
NASS based their estimate on 890,000 bearing acres, up 20,000 from 2014. They forecast the nut set per tree down 12%. Kernel sizing is expected to be down 1%. Estimated trees per acre remained at 114.
Posted here is the NASS 2015 Objective Report
Posted here is NASS' Presentation
We will see the market reaction in the coming days and send additional info Friday July 10, after the June Position Report is released.
Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.