NASS 2017 Objective Estimate

California Almond Objective Estimate:  2.25 Billion Lbs.

Per Acre: 2,250 lbs. (-1%)

Bearing Acres (Trees planted 2014 or earlier):  1,000,000 (+60,000 acres) 

VS. Subjective estimate of 2.2 Billion lbs:  +2.3%

VS. 2016 Receipts to-date of 2.134 Billion:  +5.4%

Nut set per Tree: 5,714:  (-7.2%)

Trees per Acre:  117 (up from 116)

Kernel Weight:  1.57 grams (+3.5%)

NASS found kernels to be wider, thicker, and longer than last year.  The largest kernels since 2010.

Some may be surprised Nonpareil is forecast as the stronger area of the crop, as some were expecting the opposite.  We find the big surprise today the overall nut set per tree being down 7.2% from last season and the lowest in recent history.  This estimate of 2.25 seems neutral or potentially bullish for the market.

Posted here is the NASS 2017 Objective Report

Posted here is NASS' presentation

We will send another update after the June Position Report is released Tuesday July 11

Please feel free to contact us with your thoughts or questions.

Paul Ewing      Dennis Soares