Almond Market Review – August 2018

The Almond Board of California released the July 2018 position report

July shipments were 143.8 million lbs. vs. 153.97 million lbs. in 2017 – down 6.6% 

DEMAND

U.S. up 4.3% for the month

Exports down 13.1% for the month  

2017 crop year worldwide shipments:  +150 million lbs. or +7%

U.S. 734.7 million lbs. (+8.7%)

Western Europe 583 milion lbs. (+3%)

China/Vietnam 225 million lbs.  (+16%)

India 199.5 million lbs. (+19%)

Middle East / Africa 182 million lbs. (-6%)

Japan 78.8 million lbs. (+11%)

Canada 58.3 million lbs. (+5%)

South Korea 50.8 million lbs. (-7%)

Central/Eastern Europe 36.9 million lbs. (+44%)

2018 CROP           

Receiving is underway for Nonpareil and Independence varieties.  There are many reports of high insect activity in the orchards, but so far, the almonds received have very low damage.  High insect activity is not surprising after the very hot July, similar to last year.

REVIEW:

July shipments were in-line with expectations.

For the season, the industry shipped 2.25 billion lbs., reducing the carry-out by 40+ million lbs.  The 360 million lb. carry-out should be lowered next month when the actual loss/exempt is adjusted.

New Crop Sales are 261 vs. 405 million lbs. a year ago.  With 11% of the new crop sold, there’s a lot of business to do in the coming weeks and months.  Many buyers are taking a more hand to mouth coverage approach given the global trade uncertainties.

Pricing for 2017 and 2018 pollinators are up about .15/lb. from 3 weeks ago.  Current crop Nonpareil pricing has remained soft as that seems to be the majority of the unsold portion of the carry-out.

Tariffs along with other key factors in the market are essentially unchanged from a month ago.

Harvest news should play a part in the market direction going forward and we will keep you informed of what we see.

Best regards,

Paul Ewing    Dennis Soares

Further info: July 2018 Position Report

Upcoming news:   August Position Report – September 11