Almond Market Update – November 2019
The Almond Board of California released the October 2019 position report
Shipments were a Record 265.5 million lbs. vs. 247.1 million lbs. in 2018 – an increase of 7.4% (+6.9% YTD)
U.S. -8.3% (-3.2% YTD) The low domestic shipment trend is interesting and not understood yet. We hear that snacking of plain whole almonds could be leveling off and believe growth is in the ingredient areas of flour, almond butter, and dairy alternatives. What impacts could this shifting have on overall consumption? It may instead have to do with increasing options of healthy snack alternatives.
Exports +13.4% (+11.75% YTD)
Western Europe +13% (+14% YTD) Shipments are more normal to the region as last season they started off very light (buyers there were bearish last year)
China/HK/Vietnam -27% (-13% YTD) Continues an erratic buying pattern and already bought significant volume from Australia. Buyers could be waiting to see if a trade deal takes place, before securing larger volumes from California.
India -3% (-16% YTD) There is a shift toward more hand to mouth buying and less speculative buying in this market.
Middle East / Africa +120% (+112% YTD) continues a much stronger start to the season
Japan +8% (+9% YTD) as steady growth continues
South Korea + 21% (Flat YTD)
Canada +8% (+8% YTD)
Crop Receipts reached 1.59 billion lbs., up 36 million from a year ago. Receipts this early do not mean much yet.
2019 Crop Expectations still remain highly varied, but most are expecting 2.40 Plus and trading accordingly. Nonpareil out of the west and South, along with Independence state-wide, should provide most of the growth in the crop. The coming couple reports should be very insightful. The large Iberian peninsula crop has not been making any noise lately.
October shipments solidly met already high expectations.
October sales were 294 million lbs. vs. 276 a year ago and 299 in September. This was unexpectedly high.
Committed (Unshipped) reached 694 million lbs., up 18% from a year ago.
Sold Position: If we have a 2.45 billion lb. crop, the industry is approximately 48% sold on total supply.
The USD remains strong, especially against emerging market currencies.
Impressive sales and shipments vs. 2018 demonstrate how buyers came into this crop with empty pipelines and needed to refill in a major way, and buyers cover much heavier in these steady to rising markets. The firmness in the bottom end of the market has brought strength to the market as a whole.
The market sentiment coming out of this report appears very firm.
Feel free to call or email for further discussions.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further info: October 2019 Position Report
Upcoming news: November Position Report – Tuesday, December 10