Almond Market Update – July 2021
The Almond Board of California released the June 2021 position report
Shipments were 220.5 million lbs. vs. 175.4 million in 2020 – +25.7% for the month (New Record) & +21.7% YTD
U.S. +11.5% (+4.4% YTD)
Exports +32.8% (+29.9% YTD)
Western Europe +45% (+18% YTD)
India -33% (+45% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +75% (+31% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +33% (+77% YTD)
Japan +103% (+3% YTD)
South Korea -23% (+36% YTD)
Canada +69% (+4% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +106% (+50% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +38% (+64% YTD)
June Shipments – forecasts were high and the record 220M solidly met expectations.
June Sales of 2020 Crop were 109 million lbs. vs. 90 million lbs. last June. Very strong, especially considering how sold the crop already was.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 496 million lbs. – up 34% from last year’s 370 million lbs.
Sold / Shipped Combined reached 3.16 billion lbs. vs. 2.56 billion a year ago.
The Industry Sold Position on 2020 Crop surpassed 90% of total supply – just below a year ago and quite a feat considering the size of the 2020 Supply.
New (2021) Crop Sales – Climbed from 231M last month to 326 million Lbs. by the end of June. Commitments are still down considerably from the 458 million presold at the same time a year ago. Sellers have been hesitant to pre-sell as much amid drought concerns and 2021 crop volume uncertainty.
With the drought as bad as it is, to some it seems the pricing should be higher, but what seems to be holding pricing back is the sheer volume we had to grow the market by over the past 12 months.
The USD is still in middle of the 1-year range despite some recent strength. The Dollar is sitting at 1.19 to the Euro and 92 for the Dollar Index (52 week range is 89 – 97)
Inshell stocks are essentially sold out so it’s no surprise to see the decline in shipments to India. New crop inshell is trading at a considerable premium to kernels, reflecting the low inshell carry-out and growing demand from inshell markets like China and India. Sellers may need to keep in mind that pricing is starting off about 80 cents a lb. higher than a year ago for Inshell.
Hot Weather: Tomorrow’s projected temperature is 113 F (45 C) in Los Banos and similar highs for much of the valley. This heat wave is not good for the crop, especially with many orchards already stressed for water. Increasing signs of the drought include salt burn, wilting, and mite pressure. These conditions will affect the ability to make inshell if many hulls get stuck on tight (what we call “stick tights”), and also affect future crop potential.
The “monster crop” of 2020 (3.1 Billion lbs.) is very heavily sold. One of the key takeaways from today’s report is that there are only 74 million lbs. of additional almonds to sell compared to a year ago. At the pace we’re shipping that’s the equivalent of about 10 days of shipments. There are 326 million lbs. unsold and given the continued premium for new crop over current crop for kernels, these almonds should get bought up quickly. By next month’s report we stand a chance to hit 2.9 Billion lbs. of shipments and push the carry out to below 600 million lbs. This is a far cry from the 800M predicted a year ago and again halfway through the season (amidst the height of the port challenges).
Harvest looks to be earlier than last year, particularly in the North and in drought impacted orchards.
NASS’ objective forecast comes out Monday and could play a significant role in the market development, so we won’t try to analyze the market outlook further until we receive their report.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Objective Forecast for 2021 Crop: Monday, July 12
July Position Report – Thursday, August 11