Almond Market Update – December 2021
The Almond Board of California released the November 2021 position report
Shipments were 220.9 million lbs. vs. 263.2 m. in 2020 – DOWN 16% for the month (-15% YTD)
DEMAND
U.S. -4.0% (-3.7% YTD)
Exports -20.2% (-19% YTD)
Western Europe -48% (-22% YTD)
India -31% (-18% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -35% (-21% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -43% (-19% YTD)
Japan +4% (+19% YTD)
South Korea -7% (+3% YTD)
Canada -20% (Flat YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -62% (-32%)
Latin America / Caribbean -55% (-37% YTD)
The 2021 Crop
November 2021 receipts were 507 Million lbs. vs. November 2020 receipts of 601 million lbs. A decline of 94 million lbs. or 16% Total Receipts at 2.402 Billion are down from 2.447 Billion a year ago. With receipts slowing, each position report will be increasingly insightful into the final crop size.
Insect Damage shows 1.93%, up from 1.36% a year ago. Navel orange worm pressure increased with last year’s drought conditions. Damage from stink bug and Leaf Footed Plant Bug increased as well. Now is a great time of year for mummy shaking to reduce pressure for the 2022 crop.
REVIEW
November Shipments – another weak month but in-line with expectations. The shipping challenges remain very severe, and buyers are late to the table this year for a variety of reasons.
November Sales were 226 million lbs. vs. 235 million lbs. in November 2020 Another decent sales month.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 753 million lbs. – down 25% from the 1 billion lbs. a year ago
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.62 Billion lbs. – down 20% from the 2.03 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 48.5% of total supply – down from 58% sold a year ago.
OUTLOOK
Buying interest has increased considerably in recent weeks but have been met with less offers. Grower support is sporadic and season pools generally have been comfortably sold.
Bullish factors in the current market include slowing crop receipts, drought concerns, prices (already being relatively low), and dwindling stocks in some key export regions including Europe.
Bearish factors include the strong dollar (up about 7% from the bottom in June), the weak shipment performance, low commitments, and the ongoing shipping challenges.
Overall the impact on the market from today’s report should be minimal.
Water remains very much on the minds of growers and handlers as we face increasing regulations coming into effect from many directions. In our monthly report from 30 years ago Ned Ryan pointed out the increasing importance of water in the years to come. Click on RPAC Newsletter from 1991 for Ned’s insights.
We wish everyone Happy Holidays and the very best for 2022.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
December Position Report – Wednesday January 11, 2022