Almond Market Update – January 2022
The Almond Board of California released the December 2021 position report
Shipments were 188.8 million lbs. vs. 256.9M in 2020 – DOWN 26.5% for the month (-17.3% YTD)
DEMAND
U.S. +5.8% (-2% YTD)
Exports -36.5% (-23% YTD)
Western Europe -33% (-24% YTD)
India -39% (-22% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -32% (-23% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -80% (-29% YTD)
Japan +20% (+19% YTD)
South Korea -26% (-5% YTD)
Canada +15% (+3% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -38% (-34%)
Latin America / Caribbean -31% (-36% YTD)
The 2021 Crop
December 2021 receipts were 345 million lbs. vs. Decemeber 2020 receipts of 455 million lbs. A decline of 110 million lbs. or 24% Total Receipts at 2.694 Billion are down 7% from 2.899 Billion a year ago.
Recent major storms have lessened the drought concerns and added a bit of additional negative market sentiment. That said, we are still in a drought and the impacts on many orchards from the recent dry years affects the 2022 crop potential.
REVIEW
December Shipments – a very weak month. To some degree this was expected and getting baked into the market.
December Sales were 246 million lbs., up from November’s 226 million lbs. and up significantly from last December’s 172 million lbs. Relative to last season, December was the best sales month so far.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 811 million lbs. – down 12% from the 921 million lbs. a year ago
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.87 billion lbs. – down 15% from the 2.2 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 56% of total supply – down from 63% sold a year ago.
OUTLOOK
Buying interest was good through much of December with strong interest out of Europe. It has been slower over the past couple weeks.
Bullish factors are limited but include the already low prices, and today’s crop receipt news. The NASS objective of 2.8 billion lbs., which was mostly dismissed the past 1-2 months, is looking increasingly accurate. Perhaps 2.8 to 2.85B is a better range outlook than 2.90-3.00B – time will tell. Poor bloom conditions could bring firmness to the market if that takes place.
Bearish factors remain with the weak shipment performance, low commitments, and the ongoing shipping challenges.
Overall given the lighter crop outlook and good sales, today’s position report is not as bearish as it may initially seem. Though, the industry needs to continue selling at a good pace to improve the supply/demand dynamics.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
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January Position Report – Friday February 11, 2022