Almond Market Update – February 2022
The Almond Board of California released the January 2022 position report
Shipments were 177.2 million lbs. vs. 194.3 m. in 2021 – DOWN 8.8% for the month (-16% YTD)
U.S. +13.3% (+0.3% YTD)
Exports -18.4% (-22.1% YTD)
Western Europe -32% (-26% YTD)
India -1% (-20% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -32% (-25% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +57% (-27% YTD)
Japan -3% (+14% YTD)
South Korea +34% (+2% YTD)
Canada +22% (+5%)
Central / Eastern Europe -20% (-32%)
Latin America / Caribbean -51% (-38% YTD)
The 2021 Crop
January 2022 receipts were 171 Million lbs. vs. January 2021 receipts of 160.3 million lbs. Total Receipts at 2.828 Billion are down from 3.025 Billion a year ago.
January Shipments – another weak month export-wise amongst continued shipping delays. The US market had it’s best month of the season.
January Sales were 208 million lbs. vs. 206 million lbs. in January 2021.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 841 million lbs. – down 9.7% from the 932 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.08 Billion lbs. – down 13.7% from the 2.41 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 60% of total supply – down from 69% sold a year ago.
Buying interest was fairly good throughout January. Seller participation seemed steady as well with carry-out concerns keeping sellers interested and remaining an ongoing bearish factor.
Shipments seem in the range of expectations but on the low end.
Supply Chain Pressures may have peaked recently. For further details, the Almond Board put out an excellent synopsis in the first section of this ABC Global Update
Even if we are past the peak of supply chain pressures, some delays continue. Some buyers are shifting inventory management from “just in time” to “just in case” and carrying extra stocks for these possible delays. Apparently not enough of that is happening yet as we hear of shortages in destinations including the spot market in Europe. Buyers may need to buy significant volumes of 2021 crop to cover fall holiday needs (Christmas, Diwali etc.) which could help with a strong finish in shipments this crop year.
Almond pricing is already very low – a bullish factor not to be overlooked
Water remains a big concern. Following a very stormy December we experienced one of the driest Januarys on record. Some growers with water access are already starting to irrigate. Many orchards in the federal water districts will be abandoned or mistreated, and orchards in other districts will be impacted as well.
Bloom is getting underway, and much attention is turning toward the bloom developments and weather outlook, which looks good, so far. The warm weather could advance bloom quickly.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
February Position Report – Friday March 11, 2022