Almond Market Update – April 2022
The Almond Board of California released the March 2022 position report
Shipments were 244.9 million lbs. vs. 266.7 m. in 2021 – DOWN 8.1% for the month (-15% YTD)
U.S. +1% (-3% YTD)
Exports -11% (-19% YTD)
Western Europe -1% (-18% YTD)
India -2% (-17% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -32% (-29% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -20% (-27% YTD)
Japan +52% (+18% YTD)
South Korea -41% (-12% YTD)
Canada +1% (+4%)
Central / Eastern Europe -55% (-35%)
Latin America / Caribbean -11% (-30% YTD)
The 2021 Crop
March 2022 receipts brought the crop over 2.9 Billion lbs. and it’s likely that nearly all the crop is received at this point.
The 2022 Crop
We covered the crop in detail last month. The challenges from the impacts of the frost, drought, and growers cutting spending, continue to be apparent. Self pollinators, tree demographics and (arguably) growing acreage, will continue to counter some of the negatives.
March Shipments – While down from last year, this was the largest total shipping number of the season (after this month’s 244M total the next best was 228M in September).
March Sales were 220 million lbs. vs. 191 million lbs. in March 2021.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 832 million lbs. – up 2.5% from the 812 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.52 Billion lbs. – down 10% from the 2.79 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 73% of total supply – down from 80% sold a year ago.
Buying interest was fairly good throughout the month. India was very active buying Inshell while China is inactive amid lockdowns etc. taking place there. The Middle East is replenishing stocks at a heavy pace.
Total Supply for 2022 crop year should be similar or higher to last year due to the anticipated larger carry-in to the 2022 season.
Sales & Shipments seem to be finally going stronger again, though we are facing tougher logistics headwinds than ever. Currently we are being told there is a lack of empty containers in Oakland and we are not able to act on many bookings in place. Shipment timing is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
The US Dollar remains similarly strong to a month ago.
Market activity should remain robust and the larger carry out will hopefully be mostly sold as we enter the new season. Additional insights will come with the reports in May.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
April Position Report – Wednesday May 11, 2022
Subjective Crop Forecast – Thursday May 12, 2022