Almond Market Update – May 2022
The Almond Board of California released the April 2022 position report
Shipments were 245.2 million lbs. vs. 249.9 m. in 2021 – DOWN 1.9% for the month (-13.5% YTD)
U.S. -11% (-3.8% YTD)
Exports +1.7% (-16% YTD)
Western Europe -2% (-18% YTD)
India +30% (-14% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +30% (-21% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -33% (-37% YTD)
Japan -27% (+12% YTD)
South Korea -67% (-20% YTD)
Canada +17% (+5%)
Central / Eastern Europe -51% (-37%)
Latin America / Caribbean – Flat (-28% YTD)
Overall the crop has been developing well for those with sufficient water and crops not too impacted by the frost. Stay tuned for the NASS subjective estimate due out tomorrow.
April Shipments – While down 2% from last year, this was the largest total shipping number of the season (just above last month’s 244M)
April Sales were 168 million lbs. vs. 163 million lbs. in April 2021.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 755 million lbs. – up 4.2% from the 724 million lbs. a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.68 Billion lbs. – down 9% from the 2.95 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 78% of total supply – down from 84% sold a year ago.
Buying interest was solid throughout most of the month of April and strong so far in May. Most of the demand has come from India, Europe, and the Middle East.
Sales continue strong for five months in a row, leading to improved shipments relative to last season.
Shipping availability & costs have been increasingly challenging for many export destinations. Ship lines are often skipping their calls on the port of Oakland or do not have sufficient empty container availability to meet the demand. Planning ahead has become more important than ever.
Domestic Inflation (CPI) for April was 8.3% up from a year ago, near 40-year highs. The Producer Price Index is what we feel more than the CPI, and it’s much higher. This is an increasing challenge for growers, processors, customers, and consumers.
The US Dollar strengthened to levels rarely seen in recent years. It is currently at 1.05 to the EURO. As of yesterday, the DXY (Dollar index) was up 8.6% during 2022.
Market activity should remain solid as buyers and sellers look to continue to participate.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Subjective Crop Forecast – Tomorrow – Thursday May 12, 2022
May Position Report – Friday June 10, 2022