Almond Market Update – June 2022
The Almond Board of California released the May 2022 position report
Shipments were 257.5 million lbs. vs. 219.4 m. in 2021 – UP 17.4% for the month (-10.7% YTD)
U.S. -8% (-4% YTD)
Exports +29% (-13% YTD)
Western Europe +35% (-11% YTD)
India +140% (-7% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +10% (-17% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -20% (-27% YTD)
Japan -7% (+10% YTD)
South Korea +65% (-15% YTD)
Canada +11% (+6%)
Central / Eastern Europe -13% (-35%)
Latin America / Caribbean +101 (-21% YTD)
The subjective estimate of 2.8 Billion lbs. seemed positively received by the all sides of the industry. Overall, the crop has been developing surprisingly well. The weather is just starting to heat up significantly so we may soon begin seeing more of the water stress that we would expect to see in various parts of the west and south areas of the valley, because of the drought situation. We see continued removals of large blocks of almonds in the Federal water districts. The poor economics of growing almonds at these prices should lead to much more removals after harvest, not just in areas with tougher water issues but also low producing orchards, etc.
May Shipments – a new record and the largest shipping month of the season.
May Sales were 116 million lbs. vs. 103 million lbs. in May 2021. Decent sales but a slowdown from the strong pace of the prior month.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 614 million lbs. – up 1% from a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.8 Billion lbs. – down 8% from the 3.06 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 81% of total supply – down from 87% sold a year ago.
Buying interest slowed during mid and late May. India in particular slowed considerably. Diwali needs will have to come out of current crop, so we expect sales to India to pick up again at some point. In areas of the world where the low pricing is mostly or all passed on to consumers, we expect demand to continue to grow at these prices.
Shipping costs are up but availability is somewhat improved as shown by the additional strong shipment month. Strong sales in recent months also played a big part in these record shipping figures.
Inflation is an ongoing concern not just in the U.S. but in Europe and other parts of the world. This is both positive and negative for almond consumption, as high inflation and economic concerns is not good for tree nut consumption, but almonds are priced very attractively relative to other nuts and relative to historic almond pricing.
The US Dollar has remained quite strong. With almond prices already so low, this should not affect things much.
Market activity could pick up following another positive report.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Objective Crop Estimate – Friday July 8, 2022
May Position Report – Tuesday July 12, 2022