Almond Market Update – July 2022
The Almond Board of California released the June 2022 position report
Shipments were 278.6 million lbs. vs. 220.5 m. in 2021 – UP 26.3% for the month (-7.7% YTD)
U.S. -2% (-4% YTD)
Exports +38% (-9% YTD)
Western Europe +20% (-8% YTD)
India +153% (+1% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +57% (-11% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +27% (-24% YTD)
Japan -5% (+8% YTD)
South Korea +55% (-12% YTD)
Canada -34% (+1%)
Central / Eastern Europe -29% (-34%)
Latin America / Caribbean +22 (-17% YTD)
The 2022 Crop
The Objective Estimate of 2.6 Billion lbs. (down from the Subjective of 2.8 Billion lbs.) was a surprise that the industry is still digesting.
As we get further into the summer there are more orchards showing stress due to water quality, water quantity and/or cut backs in farming practices due to the economics.
June Shipments – a new record and the largest shipping month of the season. The only month in our industry’s history that we have shipped more was October 2020
June Sales were 119 million lbs. vs. 109 million lbs. in June 2021.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 454 million lbs. – down 8% from a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.92 Billion lbs. – down 8% from the 3.16 billion a year ago
The Industry Sold Position on 2021 Crop was 84% of total supply – down from 90% sold a year ago.
New Crop Sales (2022) stand at 236 million lbs., very similar to 2019 while down from 326 million lbs. a year ago.
Buying interest seemed slow and steady during June.
Shipping remains challenging but continues improving.
The US Dollar strengthened even further. The Euro reached it’s lowest point since 2002 and sits near parity to the USD today.
Buyers face many tough challenges between the shipping issues, currency movements, inflation, uncertain energy costs etc. Meanwhile growers face even tougher times and uncertainty with the higher input costs, low prices, higher interest rates, water issues, and more. Hopefully we will get more clarity in the coming months as the market responds to recent news. Much of the focus in August will turn to early crop receipt figures.
On the positive side, the industry is now looking at a likely carry out in the mid 700’s, much lower than the 900 to 1 billion lb. figure some were predicting mid way through this season. If the Objective Estimate is accurate, we will have a lower total supply for the 2022 season than 2021.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
July Position Report – Friday August 12, 2022