Almond Market Update – November 2022
The Almond Board of California released the October 2022 position report
Shipments were 214.6 million lbs. vs. 217.1 M in 2021 – down -1.1% for the month and down 3.2% YTD
U.S. +0.6% (-6.7% YTD)
Exports -1.9% (-1.7% YTD)
Western Europe -1% (+1% YTD)
India +11% (-27% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +7% (+60%)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -21% (-15% YTD)
Japan -18% (-24% YTD)
South Korea -33% (-45% YTD)
Canada -16% (-8% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +66% (+70% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +3% (Flat YTD)
October Shipments – although not impressive, these figures were on the high side of industry expectations.
October Sales were 243 million lbs. vs. 244 million lbs. in October 2021.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 694.8 million lbs. – down 7.1% from a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.33 billion lbs. – down 5.3% from a year ago.
The Industry Sold Position was 39% of total supply – down slightly from 40% a year ago.
Buying interest was solid during October. Strong selling interest lead to softening prices during much of October. Recently pricing was more stable.
Considering the softening of prices, this solid month of sales is a sign of good demand at these low price levels.
In health news, studies continue to come out demonstrating the strong health benefits of eating almonds and tree nuts in general. One recent study is posted to our website about Almonds & Gut Health These health posts have a share feature, you can spread the good news about the health impacts of eating almonds.
Concerns about the final ’22 crop size and water outlook remain, particularly among sellers. On the flip side, many buyers remain concerned about inflation and the economic challenges potentially affecting consumption.
Other positive news is the strong USD which has significantly weakened recently. See the included chart of the USD Index. The USD is currently at 1.03.5 to the Euro, improved from the Euro’s weakest point of 0.96. The USD trend had been working against exporters for many months, but now makes almonds more attractively priced to customers around the world.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
November Position Report – Tuesday December 13, 2022