Almond Market Update – January 2023
The Almond Board of California released the December 2022 position report
Shipments were 206.3 million lbs. vs. 188.8 in 2021 – UP 9.3% for the month and bringing YTD down 1.9%
U.S. -18.4% (-8.7% YTD)
Exports +23.6% (+1.2% YTD)
Western Europe +23% (+1% YTD)
India +37% (-9% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +90% (+56% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -41% (-24% YTD)
Japan -6% (-19% YTD)
South Korea -35% (-39% YTD)
Canada -2% (-13% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -40% (+18% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -54% (-15% YTD)
December Shipments – This was on the high side of expectations. Industry members seemed cautiously optimistic.
December Sales were 235 million lbs. vs. 246 million lbs. in December 2021 – in-line with expectations.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 720 million lbs. – down 11.3% from a year ago.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.76 billion lbs. – down 6% from a year ago.
The Industry Sold Position was 53% of total supply – down slightly from 54% a year ago.
December 2022 Receipts were 226.2 Million lbs. vs. 344.8 Million lbs. in December 2021. Crop receipts were down 7% from last year as of last month, and are down 10.8% as of the end of December. The shorter crop has led to an earlier finish and crop receipts January forward should be significantly less than last season’s 265.1 Million lbs. We anticipate a final crop in the range of 2.5 to 2.55 Billion lbs., down from last season’s 2.92 Billion lbs. and the Objective estimate of 2.6 Billion lbs.
The weaker USD in recent months should be helping export demand.
China Re-opening combined with the current very low prices, should lead to improved demand from that region.
India’s demand has improved in recent weeks as well.
The U.S. remains a real challenge as retailers have kept pricing historically high relative to the low market levels. As we enter a new year, it will be interesting to watch for promotions and changes in pricing at the retail level in established markets including the U.S. and Western Europe.
Buying & selling interest was steady during December and continued into January so far.
US Inflation remains high but continues trending in the right direction:
Winter Weather has continued with extreme rain and wind events causing fallen trees in old orchards, orchards partially or fully under water, and a lot of property damage throughout the state. It’s important for growers with standing water to be able to remove it in a timely manner to avoid suffocating the roots. We hope everyone stays safe, which is the important thing in these times.
The next report should give good insights into the final crop size. A 2.525 Billion lb. crop would mean approx. 2.475 B marketable. Combined with a 836M carry-in, this would give total supply of approximately 3.31B vs. 3.49B for the ’21 crop. This 5% decrease in supply would lead to a reduced carry-out so long as shipments continue trending in the right direction. Everyone seems to agree that a reduced carryout is needed to improve market conditions. Even this far into the season, we have several unknowns regarding the crop size and demand.
Almond buying should remain active following today’s report.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
December Position Report – Thursday February 9, 2023