Almond Market Update – June 2023
The Almond Board of California released the May 2023 position report:
Shipments were 195.7 million lbs. vs. 257.5 million lbs. in 2022 – DOWN 24% for the month, bringing YTD to just 0.25% UP
DEMAND
U.S. -14.3% (-6.9% YTD)
Exports -27.2% (+3.2% YTD)
Western Europe -26% (-7% YTD)
India -42% (-3% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -49% (+34% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -11% (+14% YTD)
Japan +12% (-12% YTD)
South Korea +23% (-20% YTD)
Canada -3% (-9% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +19% (+25% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -32% (-3% YTD)
REVIEW
May Shipments – The figure is right in-line with industry expectations.
May Sales were 114 million lbs. vs. 117 million lbs. in May 2022 and very similar to April 2023 sales.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 483 million lbs., sitting 21% below last year’s 614 million lbs.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.67 billion lbs. vs. 2.8 billion lbs. a year ago – down 4.5%
The Industry Sold Position was 79.7% of total supply – just below the 80.7% from a year ago.
Buying Activity / Outlook
Pricing softened quickly in mid-May, following the release of the subjective estimate. In late May activity picked up and it has continued in June thus far. Activity started with Europe, followed by the Middle East, India, China, and other markets. Buyers responded to the lower and more stable pricing. We expect June will be a strong sales month, leading to better shipments in the months ahead.
With shipments YTD of 2.19 billion and 2 months to go, if the industry can ship just over 200M per month on average, it can ship about 2.6 Billion lbs. and end up with a carry-out in the range of 750 million lbs.
The next figure out will be the objective estimate, which should give good insight into the supply outlook for the coming season. Assuming 2.45 billion Marketable (2.5 billion gross subjective estimate), a 750M carry-in would mean 3.2 billion lbs. total supply, down 150 million lbs. from this season. If it were 2.25 billion Marketable (a 2.3 billion lb. gross crop), it would mean a total supply of 3 billion lbs., about 350 million lbs. less than the ’22-23 season, making for a potentially much tighter supply. The difference between the subjective estimate and industry expectations is quite large, so the objective estimate may carry more importance than normal this year.
In the meantime, the industry is likely to continue supporting sales and many markets seem ready to continue covering their needs.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
NASS Objective Estimate – Friday July 7, 2023
June Position Report – Tuesday July 11, 2023