Almond Market Update – August 2023
The Almond Board of California released the July 2023 position report:
Shipments were 186.7 million lbs. vs. 169.4 million lbs. in 2022 – UP 10.2% for the month, bringing YTD to 2.6% DOWN
U.S. -1.1% (-6.3% YTD)
Exports +15.9% (-1.1% YTD)
Western Europe +20% (-10% YTD)
India +54% (-6% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -6% (+18% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -30% (+10% YTD)
Japan +34% (-8% YTD)
Canada +9% (-8% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +33% (+22% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +49% (-3% YTD)
July Shipments – The figure is in-line with industry expectations.
July Sales of current crop were 108.6 million lbs. vs. 63.3 million lbs. in July 2022 – UP 72%
July Sales of new crop were 82.5 million lbs. vs. 62.4 million lbs. in July 2022 – UP 32%. They are starting to catch up but remain considerably behind a year ago.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 372.9 million lbs., sitting 7% above last year’s 348.2 million lbs.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.93 billion lbs. vs. 2.98 billion lbs. a year ago – down 1.5%
The Industry Sold Position was 87.6% of total supply – above the 85.9% from a year ago.
Buying Activity / Outlook
Sales (for current crop) in July were the best since 2009.
Despite strong sales, pricing fell over the past 4 weeks as there have been many willing sellers to satisfy the demand. Considering how few sales took place in the first part of July (ahead of the estimate), the sales figure is more impressive. It appears a lot has been sold in early August as well.
Even with a large carryout, supplies of certain items like high quality Carmel type, are reported to be in tight supply.
Harvest Yield Results will get a lot of attention as there are highly varied opinions of the crop and many growers do not agree with the NASS objective estimate. IF the yield results appear to vary below NASS’ estimate, it should have some impact on the market, likely more so later in the season as the industry gathers more data.
In the meantime, the industry needs to continue with good sales figures to keep product moving. With the weak market sentiment, continued selling support is likely to continue in the short term. With buyers heavily uncovered, the demand should be there to match up with the selling support. All the inshell interest out of China and India is a sign of what a great value almonds are today.
Harvest is about 2 weeks behind last season. NASS pointed to high doubles and we are noticing that. There are also many reports of high insect pressure. Abandoned orchards as well as some growers cutting back on sprays and other practices to lower costs, is likely contributing to the higher insect pressure.
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
August Position Report – Tuesday September 12, 2023