Almond Market Update – September 2023
The Almond Board of California released the August 2023 position report:
Shipments were 212 million lbs. vs. 228.3 million lbs. in 2022 – DOWN 7.1% for the first month of the crop year
DEMAND
U.S. -6.2%
Exports -7.5%
Western Europe +6%
India +1%
Middle East / Africa -30%
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -42%
Japan +31%
South Korea +25%
Canada +4% 
Central / Eastern Europe -30%
Latin America / Caribbean +20%
REVIEW
August Shipments – The figure is again in-line with industry expectations.
August Sales were 256 million lbs. vs. 196 million lbs. in August 2022 – UP 31%
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 622 million lbs., sitting just above last year’s 614 million lbs.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 834 million lbs. vs. 842 million lbs. a year ago – down 1%
The Industry Sold Position was 25% of total supply – up slightly from a year ago. This is assuming a 2.6B crop, if the crop is shorter then the sold percentage would be higher.
The US Marketing campaign kicked off with Coach Prime (Deion Sanders) and spreading the word about how almonds help you recover from exercise.
This very new approach to the US Market just launched in early September and it will be exciting to see how the results.
Buying Activity / Outlook
Sales were strong and shipments were as expected.
Pricing rose in recent weeks amidst increasing concerns over the 2023 crop yields and quality. Today’s report shows average insect damage of 4.4%, more than double the 2% seen at this time a year ago. That report is based off just the initial few percent of the crop, but we are now about 15% received at RPAC and continue to receive high insect damage levels. There are additional navel orange worm flights taking place and see pressure coming on some of the later varieties like Monterey. It’s estimated that insect damage in the orchard is about double the incoming USDA levels due to damaged nuts getting blown out during the harvesting or hulling/shelling processes. If we had 2.4% more insect damage, and another 2.4% blown out in the orchards/hullers, we could potentially be losing roughly 5% of the crop to navel orange worm. The field team at RPAC: Matt, Ernie, Donny, Carson, did an excellent job spotting the insect risk several months ahead of harvest.
Yield reports – as usual are highly varied by region and orchard and it’s too early to come to conclusions. In general, the Sacramento Valley is seeing significant increases from the very low (frost) yields of 2022. The rest of the state, where most of the crop is grown, is generally seeing lower yields. There are exceptions in areas as well as exceptions with Independence and Shasta, which are looking good so far.
Harvest timing was further delayed by multiple rain events. Many sellers are uncertain of what kind of quality they will be able to make out of the 2023 crop given the rains, inedibles, doubles, etc. The 2022 crop is where much of recent sales activity has taken place, and in some cases, will be of higher quality than the new crop. Something for buyers to consider, especially for high spec material.
Despite firming conditions, suppliers need to continue selling and support some of the heavy demand coming in.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
September Position Report – Thursday October 12, 2023