Almond Market Update – December 2023
The Almond Board of California released the November 2023 position report:
Shipments were 238.3 million lbs. vs. 204.3 million lbs. in 2022: +16.6% for the Month (+9.6% YTD)
DEMAND
U.S. -2% (-1% YTD)
Exports +24.7% (+13.9% YTD)
Western Europe +19% (+14% YTD)
India +11% (+31% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +34% (+15% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam 122% (+7% YTD)
Japan -11% (+13% YTD)
South Korea +40% (+30% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -9% (-25% YTD)
Canada +2% (+2% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +40% (+12% YTD)
REVIEW
November Shipments – The figure is in-line with industry expectations.
November Sales were 208 million lbs. vs. 201 million lbs. in November 2022.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 647 million lbs. vs. last year’s 691 million lbs., down 6.3%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.56 billion lbs. vs. 1.53 billion lbs. a year ago.
The Industry Sold Position was 47% of total supply – vs 45% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.6B crop and normal loss & exempt, which was the NASS Objective estimate but far from industry’s expectations at this time. Assuming a 2.4 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the much higher inedibles), the industry is 50% sold on total supply.
The 2023 CROP
Insect damage rose to 4.08%, still running almost double last season. Among the major traditional varieties, Nonpareil damage is averaging 4.7%, Monterey 4.6%, Butte/padre 2.2%, Wood Colony 3.2%, Aldrich 3.8%, and Fritz 6.5%. The newer self-compatible varieties fared better with Independence at 2.8% and Shasta at 2.1% damage.
When opening mummy nuts in the fields, we are finding a very high percentage of insects and insect damage. This is an important time of year where growers can remove mummy nuts to reduce the risk of damage to the 2024 crop. Thomas Martin from Trece won this year’s Almond Leadership Special Project contest by demonstrating the economic impacts of various IPM practices. The single largest economic impact was found with winter sanitation. He noted “From 2003-2006, Brad Higbee and Joel Siegel logged the relationship between Mummies/Tree and Navel Orangeworm Damage in almonds at almost 2,000 almond blocks (Higbee 2009)”. Thomas summarized, the study found orchards showing over 2 mummies per tree, average of 8.5% damage, below 2 was significantly less, below 1 mummy per tree, damage was around 2-3% on average. As David Doll recently pointed out, the old nuts provide a (potential) winter home and first food source the following spring for not just NOW but Carpophilus Beetle, Carob Moth, and Almond Seed Wasp
Land IQ’s acreage report last month showed total acreage in California declined for the second year in a row. While bearing acreage increased, we expect that will decrease for 2024 crop with the high rate of removals taking place right now. According to the report, approximately 83k acres were removed (up 38%) plus approximately 40k acres were categorized as stressed, abandoned or potentially abandoned (up 33%).
Crop Receipts so far are 1.867 Billion lbs. vs. 2.150 Billion lbs. a year ago, down 13.2%. With some running into December that did not last season, and others that ran well into the new year not planning to run as late, we expect higher receipts for December, and perhaps less receipts for January forward.
Buying Activity / Outlook
Buying activity was solid in recent weeks, especially heading into today’s report. With the strong report, and inventory low at some destinations, interest should remain strong.
Vessel Delays with exports are becoming much more common again. This is causing some of the shortages in parts of the world, particularly Europe.
Carry-in continues to be less and less of a factor. This may have been part of what has been holding back the STD5 price. While inedibles are up, contributing to more STD5 volume, tens of millions of pounds of the inedibles must go to oil stock or similar disposition and will be removed from the edible market. Also, there are considerably fewer small kernels to include in STD5 input this season. Doubles will contribute some additional supply to the STD5 type market.
While the industry may be about half sold, it is likely much more sold on certain grades, given the extremely poor quality this season. This should become more evident in the coming months. Not just in terms of inedibles but also doubles and other issues present in the ’23 crop.
The short-term outlook for the market remains firm as the supply/demand outlook seems to be coming back into balance. A crop of 2.4B with 4% Loss & Exempt would mean a total supply decrease of about 260 million lbs., meanwhile shipments are up by about 80 million lbs. so far. Bloom will play into the medium-term outlook.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Joel Siegel – Areawide Program for Control of Navel Orangeworm
Upcoming News:
December Position Report – Thursday January 11, 2024