Almond Market Update – February 2024
The Almond Board of California released the January 2024 position report:
Shipments were 235.9 million lbs. vs. 229.6 million lbs. in 2023: +2.7% for the Month (+8.6% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -5.4% (-0.6% YTD)
Exports +6.1% (+12.2% YTD)
Western Europe +4% (+10% YTD)
India +12% (+25% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -2% (+8% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -14% (+17% YTD)
Japan Flat (+12% YTD)
South Korea +63% (+31% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +12% (-22% YTD)
Canada +8% (+7% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +10% (+8% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
January Shipments – The figure is in-line with industry expectations and an industry record.
January Sales were 236 million lbs. vs. 350 million lbs. in January 2023. Last year the buying community came into January very uncovered, and the industry had an enormous sales month. This year the expectations were for modest January sales and this 236 sales figure surprised the industry to the upside.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 637 million lbs. vs. last year’s 840 million lbs., down 24%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.02 billion lbs. vs. 2.11 billion lbs. a year ago.
The Industry Sold Position was 64% of total supply – vs 63% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.45 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the much higher inedibles).
Market Outlook
Buying activity remained very strong in recent weeks. Europe surprised us with the amount of recently buying, including a lot for nearby shipment. The Middle East continues participating, seeming to come in and out of the market.
India was active but has been slower in recent weeks. It’s thought that consumption is growing there and much of the growth in shipments is getting consumed. China is awaiting Chinese new year and may return to the market more post CNY celebrations. Inshell shipments for the season are about 50 million lbs. (+18%) ahead of last season. Inshell supply in California is questionable given the issues we had with staining and inedibles. Australia is reported to have their largest crop ever, and their inshell should supplement some of the shortfall in California, helping fuel the growth in India.
February sales will be boosted by a USDA Section 32 purchase for U.S.A. nutrition assistance programs. With an already tight pollinator market recently, the timing of this 20 million lbs. purchase is good for the market.
Crop receipts came in above expectations, with most expecting a final crop in the range of 2.4 Billion lbs. and it’s now pointing toward around 2.45 billion lbs. January 2023 was a very difficult shelling month with weather issues, and this year was more cooperative, which may be part of the reason for the larger receipts. All signs still point toward a tight carryout, just not as tight as it had been looking prior to the extra receipts.
Most of the attention now shifts to bloom. NOW (Navel Orange worm) pressure could be a challenge again with the ’24 crop as we see many orchards still have plenty of mummies on the trees, and grower budgets remain extremely tight. The bud set in general looks very strong, as the trees are rested. However, many orchards do not have the strength to hold a big crop even if they set one, due to lack of inputs including post harvest fertilizer last fall. Some growers have cut back on their bees or not put any at all. Orchards are coming up for sale throughout the valley during these tough times. The short-term outlook for weather is warm, which should push the trees into more of a blooming state, and wet weather is expected to return in about 8-9 days, likely right in the middle of bloom. Nevertheless, the outlook looks better than ’23 weather which was historically very bad. The long-term outlook for potential additional atmospheric rivers should make out for another eventful bloom and post bloom period. With very saturated soils and more wet weather on the way, phytophthora should be a challenge for some growers.
Global shipping issues are intensifying due to ripple effects from the challenges in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. We are running into extreme scenarios again including one ship line cancelling all bookings in place even when we had empty containers on hand (for confirmed bookings) at our facility. Transit delays of over 1 month are not uncommon. Buyers may want to seriously consider planning ahead for delays, returning from Just-in-Time inventory back to Just-in-Case inventory, as some did a couple years ago.
The market outlook remains bullish.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
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February Position Report – Tuesday March 12, 2024