Almond Market Update – March 2024
The Almond Board of California released the February 2024 position report:
Shipments were 221.1 million lbs. vs. 245.7 million lbs. in 2023: DOWN 10% for the Month (+5.6% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +2.3% (-0.2% YTD)
Exports -13.8% (+7.8% YTD)
Western Europe +14% (+11% YTD)
India -21% (+18% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -17% (+3% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -57% (+1% YTD)
Japan +2% (+10% YTD)
South Korea -11% (+21% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -24% (-22% YTD)
Canada -14% (+7% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -22% (+5% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
February Shipments – The figure is in-line with industry expectations though perhaps on the low end. The industry likely could have shipped more but numerous vessels were delayed at the end of the month, pushing them into early March.
February Sales were 214 million lbs. vs. 190 million lbs. in February 2023.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 631 million lbs. vs. last year’s 785 million lbs., down 20%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.23 billion lbs. vs. 2.3 billion lbs. a year ago, down 3%.
The Industry Sold Position was 71% of total supply – vs 68% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.45 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the much higher inedibles).
Market Outlook 
Buying activity slowed in recent weeks as more sellers came to the market. Different regions have taken turns participating on the buying side.
India showing lower shipments for February is a good sign for that market and may give more confidence for Indian importers to ramp up their purchases again.
February sales were a pleasant surprise.
Crop receipts came in on the low end of expectations with very little received in February.
Shipments are up 5.5% YTD meanwhile total supply is down 4.5% YTD. The industry seems on track for a carry-out in the range of 500 million lbs.
More attention has shifted to 2024 crop potential. Bloom was profuse (a lot of flowers). The weather was not perfect but good and much better than last season. Grower cutbacks in inputs will continue to impact crop potential, to what extent is widely debated and we believe very unclear. It’s obvious there is financial pain that will impact supply, just by looking at the bankruptcies in the news, number of ranches coming up for sale, and number of orchards being removed or abandoned. What is debated is how extensively this will impact supply vs. what appears to have been a great bloom. We will learn more as we see how much nutlets the trees shed this month, and more importantly in May.
While ’24 crop potential opinions are causing current softness, the lower carry-out expected combined with the quality challenges of the ’23 crop, could lead to tight supply on certain items later in the season.
Almonds currently present incredible value – Buyers such as confectioners could potentially boost profitability by including more almonds in their products and/or promoting products with almonds. Our Olivier Telvi, who’s based in London running RPAC’s sales office from there, reports that Cocoa pricing is up about about triple from a year ago to roughly $3.45/lb. It’s very unusual that the almonds make-up a lower cost (of the chocolate bar) than the cocoa. Hazelnuts are currently trading at $3.40/lb.
Global shipping issues continue intensifying. Planning ahead, flexibility with ship lines and even destination ports when possible, are all things to consider.
HEALTH NEWS from the U.S.: Muscle Recovery: A new study released in February showed “Snacking on almonds for eight weeks reduced perceived feelings of muscle soreness during recovery from muscle-damaging exercise, resulting in better maintenance of muscle functional capacity. This study suggests that almonds are a functional food snack to improve exercise tolerance in mildly overweight, middle-aged adults.” Read the Full Announcement
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
March Position Report – Thursday April 11, 2024