Almond Market Update – April 2024
The Almond Board of California released the March 2024 position report:
Shipments were 237 million lbs. vs. 281 million lbs. in 2023: DOWN 15.7% for the Month (+2.25% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -6.0% (-1% YTD)
Exports -19% (+3.4% YTD)
Western Europe -10% (+7% YTD)
India -14% (+15% YTD)
Middle East / Africa -12% (Flat YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -68% (-14% YTD)
Japan +2% (+6% YTD)
South Korea -11% (+22% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -24% (-18% YTD)
Canada -14% (+4% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -22% (+1% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
March Shipments – The figure is inline with industry expectations, as the prior March was extraordinarily high.
March Sales were 181.7 million lbs. vs. 143.6 million lbs. in March 2023.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 576 million lbs. vs. last year’s 647 million lbs., down 11%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.41 billion lbs. vs. 2.45 billion lbs. a year ago, down 1.3%.
The Industry Sold Position was 77% of total supply – vs 73% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.45 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the high inedibles).
Market Outlook
March sales were positive. Buying activity was steady in March but shifted back and forth on which items were more liquid. Recently the Middle East has been less active as they are on holiday. Inquiries from China have picked up but it’s not clear how much business is getting done there. Activity into India has been available at the right pricing. Much of the prior grower selling interest seemed to be satisfied as of recently.
India showed lower shipments for another month, which should be a good sign for that market and lead to more buying from the region.
2024 crop potential has come much more into focus, as was expected. Acreage appears to be declining, but some think very slightly. Since orchard removal companies are backed up on their work, it’s hard to tell. Given the strong winter rains, many orchards that will be coming out, still appear alive. The state yields are clearly up from last year’s low yields, which has played into the lower pricing seen over the past 5 weeks.
Global shipping issues remain challenging. We continue to experience frequent vessel changes and delays.
Shipments are up 2% YTD meanwhile total supply is down over 4% YTD. The industry seems on track for a carry-out in the range of 500 to 550 million lbs. Our industry is averaging nearly 230 million lbs. per month this season. Last April through July the industry averaged under 192 million lbs. per month. We are on track for a strong finish as long as the industry remains active selling.
Crop estimates over the coming weeks and months will be closely watched and play into the new crop market. They may free up more new crop liquidity on either or both sides. The industry could use strong new crop sales heading into the new crop year.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
Acreage Estimate (2024 Land IQ Initial Standing) – Wednesday April 24
Nursery Survey (2023) – Thursday April 25
April Position Report – Friday May 10, 2024
NASS Subjective Estimate – Friday May 10, 2024