Almond Market Update – May 2024
The Almond Board of California released the April 2024 position report:
Shipments were 241.5 million lbs. vs. 197.26 million lbs. in 2023: UP 22.4% for the Month (+4.2% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +14% (+0.6% YTD)
Exports +26% (+5.6% YTD)
Western Europe +10% (+8% YTD)
India +65% (+18% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +63% (+6%)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +2% (-13% YTD)
Japan +1% (+5% YTD)
South Korea +34% (+23% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -26% (-19% YTD)
Canada +15% (+5% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +14% (+5% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
April Shipments – The figure clearly beat industry expectations
April Sales were 218.6 million lbs. vs. 114.7 million lbs. in April 2023.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 553 million lbs. vs. last year’s 565 million lbs., down 2%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.63 billion lbs. vs. 2.56 billion lbs. a year ago, up 2.8%.
The Industry Sold Position was 84% of total supply – vs 76% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.45 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the high inedibles).
Market Outlook
The NASS Subjective estimate is 3.0 billion lbs. (released May 10). The estimate is in the range of expectations, if anything, slightly on the high side, but we don’t hear much debate about the number. The 2,170 lbs. per acre was right in-line with expectations. The 1.38 million bearing acreage figure used in the estimate seemed on the high side. Recently, Land IQ came out with their “initial” acreage estimate (using satellite data) of 1.374 million acres. Given how far the tree removal companies are behind, and current grower economics, many expect that figure will be revised a fair bit downward when we get the adjusted final figure after harvest.
New plantings continue declining, as evidenced by the recently released Nursery Survey as well as the Land IQ Acreage report (links below). This is a sign of low prices trying to cure low prices, though it’s taking a lot longer than usual.
Buying activity was strong during April, as reflected in the large commitment figure. This points toward a solid month for May as well. Carry-out expectations should continue to move downward as a result. Sellers are at times pausing on some items as they work through inventory and get a better grasp on the remaining unsold qualities, sizes, etc. However, sellers are likely to continue participating at a good rate and reduce their carry-out ahead of the larger 2024 crop.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
LandIQ Initial Acreage Estimate 2024
Upcoming News:
May Position Report – Tuesday, June 11, 2024