Almond Market Update – June 2024
The Almond Board of California released the May 2024 position report:
Shipments were 226.06 million lbs. vs. 195.67 million lbs. in 2023: UP 15.5% for the Month (+5.25% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +19.5% (+2.3% YTD)
Exports +14% (+6.4% YTD)
Western Europe -16% (+5% YTD)
India +64% (+21% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +91% (+11%)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +6% (-12% YTD)
Japan -20% (+2% YTD)
South Korea -22% (+15% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -5% (-19% YTD)
Canada -11% (+3% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +26% (+5% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
May Shipments – In-line with expectations.
May Sales were 134 million lbs. vs. 114 million lbs. in May 2023.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 461 million lbs. vs. last year’s 483 million lbs., down 4.6%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.77 billion lbs. vs. 2.67 billion lbs. a year ago, up 3.5%.
The Industry Sold Position was 87.9% of total supply – vs 79.7% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.45 billion lb. crop with 4% Loss & Exempt (with the high inedibles).
New Crop Sales (2024) were 173.1 Million lbs. vs. 57.5 Million lbs. a year ago.
Market Outlook
Domestic almond shipments (up 26% and 14% in the last 2 months) are benefiting from more than just Trader Joe’s retail price reduction (thank you Trader Joes!). Cashew pricing rose rapidly by more than $1.00/lb. as the market dynamics shifted. This is boosting domestic shipments as the two nuts are often competing for consumption. Some export markets that saw huge jumps in almond shipments in May, will likely benefit from the high cashew prices and work through inventory quicker than they would have otherwise (i.e. we are not so concerned about Middle East shipments being up 90%+ for the month).
Buying activity was solid during May and likely could have been even stronger if sellers did not pull back. Sellers are facing continually tighter inventory. We think we are on track for a carryout of approximately 450 million lbs., which would be a reduction of over 40%. What makes this feel even tighter is that it likely takes over 200 million lbs. to cover the transition between crops (as items gradually become available from new crop as we get into August), plus there is a good portion that is very low grade around time of transition, so the marketable and available carry-out available to sell toward the end is likely to be considerably lower than the 40% would indicate. This is what is pushing pricing higher. However, if the industry pulls back from selling too much, shipments will slow down and the carry-out will not be as tight as it seems on track for now. It’s a balancing act.
Regardless, the tight transition is real, and buyers being able to find whatever they desire 12 months out of the year, on the spot, does not appear to be the case any longer. Buyers should exercise caution in having sufficient inventory to get through the transition.
Many buyers are expecting or hoping the larger new crop will bring relief to the market. The NASS objective estimate will play a huge role in the market going forward.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
NASS Objective Estimate – Wednesday July 10, 2024
June Position Report – Thursday, July 11, 2024