Almond Market Update – July 2024
The Almond Board of California released the June 2024 position report:
Shipments were 206.2 million lbs. vs. 186.6 million lbs. in 2023: UP 10.5% for the Month (+5.7% YTD)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +1.9% (+2.3% YTD)
Exports +14.6% (+6.9% YTD)
Western Europe -11% (+4% YTD)
India +74% (+24% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +129% (+17% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -52% (-14% YTD)
Japan -17% (-1% YTD)
South Korea -43% (+8% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe -10% (-17% YTD)
Canada -1% (+3% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean -7% (+4% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
June Shipments – In-line with expectations.
June Sales were 92 million lbs. vs. 155 million lbs. in June 2023. This is more of a normal June for sales.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 347 million lbs. vs. last year’s 451 million lbs., down 23%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.86 billion lbs. vs. 2.83 billion lbs. a year ago, up 1%.
The Industry Sold Position was 91% of total supply – vs 84% a year ago. This is assuming 4% Loss & Exempt (with the high inedibles).
New Crop Sales (2024) so far total 271 million lbs., indicating about 100 million lbs. of new crop was sold during June. A year ago, the industry had less than half as much sold, sitting at only 122 million lbs.
Market Outlook
NASS’ objective estimate was released yesterday at 2.8 billion lbs. and came as a surprise to many. Expectations generally hovered close to the 3 billion lb. subjective estimate released in May. This brings a bullish sentiment to the market.
How is the 2.8 billion lb. crop estimate even possible? How is the average nut set per tree only up 3%. That’s what many have been questioning since the report was released. We have been pointing to the low farming inputs for a good while and we think the tough economics likely played into what NASS found. If you get some very low yielding orchards thrown into the average, they can bring the average down far enough that it could be the reason for this 2.8B estimate.
As we experience extremely hot temperatures recently, growers are trying to get their hull split sprays on to protect against navel orange worm, meanwhile keeping up on their irrigation. It’s a real challenge and not ideal for crop development.
With one month left in the ’23 season, the industry is on track to ship about 2.7 billion lbs. This should leave a carry-out under 500 million lbs., and given the high inedibles, likely well under 500 once the loss & exempt is trued up in September. Using 2.8 billion lbs. gross for 2024 crop, 2.744 B marketable, and 475 million lbs. carry-in, this scenario would leave a total supply of 3.22 billion lbs., essentially flat with the 2023 crop year total supply (correction 7/17/2024, it would be flat with ’23 crop year and down approximately 135 million lbs. from the ’22 crop total supply again).
Bearing acreage has peaked and we believe will show to have been declining once acreage is trued up with the Land IQ report in the fall.
Buying activity should pick up following these reports as many awaited the estimate before buying additional volumes.
Best wishes,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
July Position Report – Friday, August 9, 2024