Almond Market Update – August 2024
The Almond Board of California released the July 2024 position report:
Shipments were 179.4 million lbs. vs. 186.7 million lbs. in 2023: DOWN 3.9% for the Month (+5% For the Season)
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -6.1% (+1.6% For the Season)
Exports +14.6% (+6.3% For the Season)
Western Europe -6% (+3% For the Season)
India -19% (+21% For the Season)
Middle East / Africa +22% (+18% For the Season)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -52% (-14% For the Season)
Japan -17% (-1% For the Season)
South Korea -36% (+4% For the Season)
Central / Eastern Europe -34% (-19% For the Season)
Canada +6% (+3% For the Season)
Latin America / Caribbean -27% (Flat for the Season)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
July Shipments – In-line with expectations.
July Sales of Current Crop were 69.9 million lbs. vs. 108.6 million lbs. in July 2023. This was below expectations.
July Sales of 2024 Crop were 107.7 million lbs. vs. 82.5 million lbs. in July 2023 (and 62.4 million lbs. in July 2022).
Committed (Unshipped) ’23 crop stood at 237.5 million lbs. vs. last year’s 372.9 million lbs., down 36%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.93 billion lbs., the same as a year ago
The Industry Sold Position was 93% of total supply – vs 87.6% a year ago. This is assuming 4% Loss & Exempt (with the high inedibles).
New Crop Sales (2024) so far total 379 million lbs. vs. 205 million lbs. a year ago.
Carry Out is estimated at 505 Million lbs. based off an estimated 2% Loss & Exempt, but will be adjusted with the next position report.
Nutrition Research Update
At a recent Almond Board of California meeting, Elena Hemler, Associate Director of Nutrition Research, presented the above pie chart showing various topics our Nutrition Research Committee is currently invested in based on the number of projects in each area. She advised there are 37 projects around the world across these health areas. It’s exciting to see all the great work being done in nutrition research!
Market Outlook
Harvest is underway. Some orchards are about a week earlier than last year, others are running similar time, but overall an earlier start. The initial signs are that sizes are smaller than expected, in some cases very small. They usually start out small with the earlier harvests so hopefully things improve on the sizing front, though some of it seems prevalent and perhaps a result of the intense heat waves. We are even seeing some sizes in the 30’s from growers with great irrigation and fertility programs. NOW (navel orangeworm) insect pressure is lower to start the season, but could pick-up later on with additional flights, so growers remain vigilant. Mite pressure seems to be increasing.
Farming Cost increases discussed in recent years were exemplified in the last cost study released by UC Davis. The initial report was for the Sacramento Valley for conventional almonds, but several additional reports are expected to release in 2024. The report showed that even at 2200 lbs. per acre yield and $2.00/lb. grower return, the Net Return above Total Cash Cost was about breakeven, and Net Return vs. Total Cost (including cost of land etc.) was a loss of $3,400 per acre. Even at $2.00/lb. and 3,000 lbs. per acre it was a loss of over $2,000 per acre vs. Total Cost. High interest rates are certainly playing into the tough economics. Link to the full report is below.
Buying interest has been slow in recent weeks. Many buyers overseas looked at cheaper stocks locally and reduced what they were buying from origin. This likely is the cause for shipments coming in below expectations, as less prompt July sales took place right after the estimate came out. Overall there could be some pent up demand given so little activity in recent weeks and given that much of the activity coming in is looking for very prompt shipment.
Inshell Pricing remains weak relative to kernels. India reports good stocks locally. The big question going around right now is how much inshell to make.
Overall todays’ report was not very eventful, and the early harvest reports are very early. Stay tuned…
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
UC Davis Almond Production Cost Study -Sac Valley 2024
Upcoming News:
August Position Report – Thursday September 12, 2024