Almond Market Update – September 2024
The Almond Board of California released the August 2024 position report:
Shipments were 168 million lbs. vs. 212 million lbs. in 2023: DOWN 20.6% for the first Month of the Season
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +1%
Exports -29.5%
Western Europe -39%
India +24%
Middle East / Africa -48%
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -35%
Japan -22%
South Korea -22%
Central / Eastern Europe -34%
Canada -10%
Latin America / Caribbean -40%
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
August Shipments – Low shipments were anticipated but these are below expectations. This seems to come as a result of the low carry-in as well as markets being fuller after some prior strong months April through June. We also think the discounted rates for ’24 crop vs. ’23 crop at one point in time led many to book new crop over ’23 crop, and also contributed to lower August figures.
August Sales were 159.3 million lbs. vs. 256.1 million lbs. in August 2023. Buyers remained patient during the first three weeks of August.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 608 million lbs. vs. last year’s 622 million lbs., down 2%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 776 million lbs. vs. 834 million lbs. a year ago, down 7%
The Industry Sold Position was 21.9% of total supply – vs 24.8% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.8B Crop
Carry-in finalized at 503 Million lbs. , the lowest since 2019.
The 2024 Crop
The overall yields are improved from last year but coming in below expectations. Independence seems to be the most impacted by the July heat and seem down 10-20% state-wide. In the south, Nonpareil seem down at least 10-15%. In the center state and further North, Nonpareil seem to be up about 20%. Early reports on Monterey show yields down from last year and below Nonpareil in the same orchards.
Moisture is very low at around 3.2% for us so far. These dry almonds are making for a quick harvest and hulling/shelling season. At our huller/sheller, we are already about 2/3 received.
Insect damage is down significantly so far, but remains historically on the high side at 2.6%. With late flights of insects, this still may rise.
Market Outlook
Industry expectations for the 2024 crop – there seem to be many more expecting a crop under 2.8 Billion lbs. than there are that expect the crop to hit the estimate. Expectations are down significantly from pre-harvest when the range was generally 2.8 to 3B, whereas now it may be 2.65 to 2.8B. Nonpareils are a bright spot in the crop and considering Nonpareil has a tendency to alternate bear, and we set this ’24 crop with peak bearing acreage and excellent bloom weather, a similar crop or less for 2025 crop seems plausible. The lack of inputs many orchards are receiving will continue to play into yields for at least 2 more years.
Buying interest has been very strong in recent weeks. September shipments should be up from last year. With so much of the world uncovered, we anticipate strong sales to continue as the world refills the pipelines and buyers manage upside risk.
The question we get from buyers a lot lately is, why has pricing been moving higher? We believe it’s due to:
Lowest carry-in since 2019
Crop coming in below expectations
Improved long-term supply/demand outlook given peak acreage and the first two reasons mentioned above
Pent-up demand
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
September Position Report – Friday October 11, 2024