Almond Market Update – October 2024
The Almond Board of California released the September 2024 position report:
Shipments were 213.6 million lbs. vs. 217.7 million lbs. in 2023: DOWN 1.9% for the Month & Down 11.1% YTD
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -11% (-5% YTD)
Exports +1.8% ( -13.6% YTD)
Western Europe -39% (-35% YTD)
India -13% (-1% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +53% (+1% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam +11% (-7% YTD)
Japan -27% (-24% YTD)
South Korea +29% (+3% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +35% (-18% YTD)
Canada -16% (-13% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +95% (+6% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
September Shipments – The figures came in below expectations and were slightly impacted by the late September port strikes that affected numerous Hapag Lloyd rail loads.
September Sales were 273 million lbs., up slightly from the 270 million lbs. in September 2023. Buyers were much more active in September than August when they purchased 159 million lbs.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 667 million lbs. vs. last year’s 674 million lbs., down 1%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.05 billion lbs. vs. 1.1 billion lbs. a year ago, down 5%
The Industry Sold Position was 32.3% of total supply – vs 32.8% a year ago.
Almonds remain an extremely great value relative to other tree nuts.
The 2024 Crop
The overall yields remain improved from last year but below expectations. Yields are highly varied by variety and region, making it a difficult crop to estimate. Generally some of the Cals are coming in better while Butte/Padre appear off. Nonpareil continues to be up in the center and North and down in the South. Independence continues to come in below last season state-wide.
The crop is running very smoothly. At our huller/sheller we are over 98% received and over 50% ran. We are on target to finish in early December and the overall crop size should be known sooner than recent years.
Insect damage remains down from last year but is trending up with high damage on some of the later varieties like Monterey. As the graph shows, this is the 2nd worst year in recent history and should surpass 3% damage.
Malnourished, distressed, abandoned etc. are the condition of many orchards these days. The neglect hurt yields for 2024 crop and should have a bigger impact on 2025 crop potential. Some orchards are very well farmed but experiencing high insect damage due to the proximity of some of these challenged orchards.
Market Outlook
As some question the higher pricing vs. the past four seasons, we look back at historical total supply:
Once total supply reached around 3.5 billion lbs. with the 2020 crop year, we occasionally (but every year it seems) hear the fearful talk of potential for crops in the range of 3.2 – 3.3 billion lbs. and carryovers in excess of 1 billion lbs. We sometimes even hear the fear of total supply of well over 4 billion lbs. However, the total supply has trended downwards. Recently increased prices are at least partly explained by this gap of about 1 billion lbs. between what was feared by some, and the reality we see today.
Inshell demand is a big talking point these days all of us in the industry decide how much inshell to make. It’s unusual to have inshell trade at a discount to kernels for such a long period of time. Many of us in California expected the inshell market to pick up for at least 4 weeks if not 6-8 weeks. We expect China’s slow start has led to the production of much less Monterey and Shasta inshell.
Buying activity and monthly shipments each month will largely determine pricing direction going forward. October is anticipated to be a strong month, and barring any major port issues, should be up a good amount from the prior year.
Following today’s report, we expect similar response to a month ago when buyers wait to see the reaction of sellers before activity picks up again.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
September 2024 Position Report
Upcoming News:
October Position Report – Tuesday November 12, 2024