Almond Market Update – November 2024
The Almond Board of California released the November 2024 position report:
Shipments were 258.4 million lbs. vs. 247.4 million lbs. in 2023: UP 4.5% for the Month & Down 5.4% YTD
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. +18.2% (+2.3% YTD)
Exports +0.3% ( -8.25% YTD)
Western Europe -9% (-27% YTD)
India -39% (-16% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +37% (+18% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -28% (-19% YTD)
Japan -6% (-18% YTD)
South Korea +31% (+12% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +87% (+9% YTD)
Canada +42% (+3% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +83% (+27% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
October Shipments – The figures came in at the low end of expectations.
October Sales were 265 million lbs., up from 250 million lbs. in October 2023 and the highest October since 2019.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 674 million lbs. vs. last year’s 677 million lbs.
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.31 billion lbs. vs. 1.35 billion lbs. a year ago, down 3%
The Industry Sold Position was 40% of total supply – the same as a year ago.
Market Outlook
US shipments being up 18% in October vs. 11% in September, indicates the impact of the tight transition as buyers were finally able to get their pollinators in October. Exports were hampered again as some vessels were delayed into November, which is why we believe the shipments were below expectations.
Inshell demand should pick up considerably following months of increasingly weak shipments to India. Demand in the local Indian market has been picking up recently. California had approximately 70% of the estimated crop already hulled, shelled, and USDA graded by October 31. Given the lag time with USDA and considering there’s already been another 12 days of hulling/shelling since these figures were taken, it’s likely that over 75% of the product is already hulled & shelled. There is little time left for inshell demand to improve and create sufficient premiums for California sellers to be incentivized to make more inshell. This inshell market will play a more pivotal role in the overall almond market in the coming weeks.
The updated acreage report in 8 days should be interesting news for the market as trends shifted toward declining acreage in recent years.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
Best regards,
Paul Ewing Dennis Soares
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
Land IQ Acreage – Updated Report – Wednesday November 20
November Position Report – Tuesday December 17