Almond Market Update – January 2025
The Almond Board of California released the January 2025 position report:
December shipments were 233.1 million lbs. vs. 229.4 million lbs. in 2023: UP 1.6% for the Month & No Change YTD
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -1.1% (-0.8% YTD)
Exports +2.5% ( +0.3% YTD)
Western Europe -0.1% (-2% YTD)
India -10% (-21% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +22% (+24% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -45% (-26% YTD)
Japan +30% (-1% YTD)
South Korea +27% (+11% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +98% (+47% YTD)
Canada -18% (No change YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +42% (+55% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
December Shipments were in-line with expectations.
December Sales were 182 million lbs., down from 208 million lbs. last December.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 561 million lbs. vs. last year’s 637 million lbs. – Down 12%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 1.71 billion lbs. vs. 1.78 billion lbs. a year ago, down 4%
The Industry Sold Position was 53% of total supply vs. 56% a year ago. This is however assuming a 2.8 billion lb. crop, per the estimate, while the current industry expectation is lower.
2024 Crop
Crop Receipts reached 2.575 billion lbs., which is bullish news again, but also generally expected as the industry wraps up sooner than normal this year. We expect the final crop may come in the range of 2.7 to 2.75 billion lbs., well below NASS subjective estimate of 3 billion lbs. and below their objective estimate of 2.8 billion lbs.
Inedibles at 3.06% remain the 2nd highest in recent history. With the current good weather, many growers are taking advantage of this opportunity to mummy shake.
Market Outlook
Inshell buying activity has been robust since the last position report. Kernel activity was slower through the holidays then began picking up this week as more buyers returned to work. The past few days were very active for both kernels and inshell.
India’s local almond market was recently very strong, with significant premiums being offered for almonds sourced from origin due to low inventory levels at destination. Inshell almonds are now commanding a premium compared to kernels. However, this shift may come too late to significantly increase supply, as many almonds were shelled out when kernel prices were higher than inshell prices. December shipments to India decreased but were still above expectations, leading to a short-term negative reaction in the local market today. However, with shipments 21% behind year-to-date, buying activity in India is expected to increase soon. Apparent lower availability of Independence inshell should eventually strengthen the overall inshell market.
The overall supply outlook indicates that total supply will be very similar to last season. After five months into the current season, shipments remain flat compared to last year. This stagnation in both supply and shipments, combined with India’s lagging purchasing, suggests that we may face another tight carry-out. Furthermore, due to ongoing economic challenges faced by growers and a lack of necessary inputs into orchards over the past several years, discussions about a potential bumper crop have diminished. However, the bloom and post-bloom periods are anticipated to bring excitement to the almond market.
Our video market update with Nicole Wurzel is posted here:
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
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January 2025 Position Report – Wednesday February 12, 2025