Almond Market Update – March 2025
The Almond Board of California released the February 2025 position report:
February shipments were 214.9 million lbs. vs. 221.1 million lbs. in 2024: DOWN 2.8% for the Month & Down 0.8% YTD
REGIONAL DEMAND FIGURES
U.S. -4.4% (-1.5% YTD)
Exports -2.2% ( – 0.6% YTD)
Western Europe -1% (-3% YTD)
India -6% (-16% YTD)
Middle East / Africa +2% (+17% YTD)
China / Hong Kong/ Vietnam -62% (-29% YTD)
Japan +4% (+3% YTD)
South Korea +19% (+15% YTD)
Central / Eastern Europe +3% (+34% YTD)
Canada +11% (+3% YTD)
Latin America / Caribbean +84% (+49% YTD)
SALES & SHIPMENT REVIEW
February Shipments were in-line with expectations.
February Sales were 221 million lbs., up from last February’s 214 million lbs., above expectations, and a new record.
Committed (Unshipped) stood at 577 million lbs. vs. last year’s 631 million lbs. – Down 8%
Sold / Shipped Combined was 2.17 billion lbs. vs. 2.23 billion lbs. a year ago, down 3%
The Industry Sold Position was 69% of total supply vs. 71% a year ago. This is assuming a 2.7 billion lb. crop.
2024 Crop
Crop Receipts reached 2.688 billion lbs., which is within expectations. This points to a crop of about 2.7 billion lbs.
2025 Crop
Bloom weather was good overall, with the exception of the North and some late season storms across the growing regions. Bee activity was very good where growers had good bees. The weakness of the bloom (bud set) is the major concern with the 2025 crop potential. The 2024 heat spells seem to have depleted carbohydrates and weakened the flower set for 2025, especially in Nonpareil, as well as Shasta, Carmel and others. Low inputs (fertilizer etc.) in recent years will play into the lower crop potential. Bearing acreage should be lower for 2025 crop, given the expected moderately high rate of removals/abandonments and low plantings. There are numerous bullish factors about the lower crop outlook, but it’s still very early, and the crop doesn’t show itself well until April.
MARKET OUTLOOK
There was good selling interest up until recently. STD5 and other low-end items are in tight supply and pushing up the market from the bottom.
Inshell buying activity comes and goes in spurts. We expect interest to pick up following today’s report, showing just over 800 loads shipped to India vs. expectations of 800 to 1,000 loads. With tariffs raised for shipments from the US to China, it’s likely Australia will ship a larger proportion of their inshell to China, bringing even more demand from India to California.
An expected 2nd year in a row of tight carry-outs and acreage set to only decline, seems to have brought a paradigm shift to the almond market. When buyers can’t buy anything they need, any variety/quality/size, 12 months out of the year, due to carry-out volumes, pricing is able to improve toward more favorable levels for growers .
The market outlook is bullish. Focus will continue to be on the 2025 crop potential and how that plays into the supply/demand fundamentals for the coming couple years.
Our video market update with Nicole Wurzel is posted below. She gives a great overview of the current market conditions.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or thoughts.
Further Info:
Upcoming News:
March 2025 Position Report – Thursday April 10, 2025
Land IQ Initial Standing Acreage Estimate – Thursday April 24, 2025
NASS Subjective Crop Estimate – Monday May 12, 2025